National Rail's Secret to Great Train Timing

The Long Tail: Define "Head" and "Tail"

Fascinating post by Chris Anderson responding to a Harvard Business Review analysis of sales patterns in the music and home-video industries to see if they support or undermine the Long Tail theory.

In short, depending on your definition of "head" and "tail", the data could be used either way. A somewhat obvious point to make about any stats, but nice to see the pro's slanging it out, and good ammunition for responding to use of "Long Tail" buzz words in pitches.

The slightly longer version is that HBR finds that the "blockbuster theory" holds even for e-commerce:

"A balanced picture emerges of the impact of online channels on market demand: Hit products remain dominant, even among consumers who venture deep into the tail. Hit products are also liked better than obscure products. It is a myth that obscure books, films, and songs are treasured. What consumers buy in internet channels is much the same as what they have always bought."

Hence, even online businesses should focus their resources on promoting hit products rather than obscure products.

However, Chris Anderson points out that:

""Head" is the selection available in the largest bricks-and-mortar retailer in the market (that would be Wal-Mart in this case). "Tail" is everything else, most of which is only available online, where there is unlimited shelf space."

Using that definition, the data supports more "tail heavy" consumer demand on the sites analysed.

View or join the ongoing debate!

Prepaid Cards and Financial Services 2.0

A tip of the hat to Chris Skinner for his giant post on Prepaid Cards as a payment method.

Very timely, given the launch this week of Wigadoo:

"Collect all the money for your trip into an online event account with a virtual prepaid MasterCard®. When you come to pay for hotels, tickets or extras it's all ready and waiting for you to spend."

Chris laments that the banks are not the ones initiating prepayment tie-ups with retailers etc. But this expects too much of banks. As an example, the Wigadoo card is issued by Newcastle Building Society, but there's little chance that NBS could have dreamed up Wigadoo's use case, let alone implemented the user experience and the marketing plan. That's just not what financial institutions are good at, and it's taken the talent and experience of Andy, John and Uma to initiate and drive the whole thing, using angel money and input from the likes of Andy Phillipps and Brent Hoberman.

I've said it before, and I'll say it again: banks will be the back office, not the front, of Financial Services 2.0.

Lifestreaming is Social Networking on Steroids

At a time when the number of social network services is skyrocketing to the point where it's impossible to join them all, aggregating them into a single feed is the next challenge. FriendFeed does it for me.

Welcome to "lifestreaming".

Consumer Protection from Unfair Trading Regs 2008

I've given up my attempt to independently summarise the Consumer Protection from Unfair Trading Regulations 2008 ("CPRs" in the trade), and am simply going to refer you to what the OFT and BERR seem to make of them.

Oh, alright then. To summarise briefly:

• Regulation 3 bans unfair commercial practices - basically anything unacceptable from an objective professional standpoint which is (or is likely to) change an economic decision of the "average" consumer. In other words, because of the practice the consumer buys (or sells) what they would not otherwise have bought (or sold), or fails to cancel a transaction that they would otherwise have cancelled.
• Regulations 5-7 prohibit commercial practices which are misleading (whether by action or omission) or aggressive, and which cause or are likely to cause the average consumer to take a different decision.
• There are 31 practices that are prohibited in all circumstances - regardless of whether or not they actually affect a consumer.
• Oh, and this is all backed by criminal and civil enforcement powers and remedies.
  

Of course, this is fantastic example of EU overkill. There is simply no major consumer problem in the UK that deserves a whole swathe of new regulation which is harmonised with Greece.

Okay, so there are still dodgy traders, but we have TV shows that doorstep those guys for fun.

But some lawyers are getting pretty worked up about these regulations from a compliance standpoint (did I mention the criminal and civil enforcement provisions?). But this misses the wood for the trees. Any consumer-facing business that is reliant on these sorts of practices for its bread and butter has heavy cultural issues to contend with, and these issues could go right to the top of the tree. Cultural change is tough, and it isn't driven from the compliance coal face alone.

Which is why I enjoy advising Web 2.0 businesses - as they are predicated not only on treating consumers fairly, but enabling consumers to ensure that they are treated fairly.

Interesting issues for some eBay power sellers, though, and I guess there may be some old sharks who'll find themselves with a fine or making licence plates.

Lest we forget, there are also changes to the comparative and misleading advertising regulations. Basically, the Business Protection from Misleading Marketing Regulations 2008 ("BPMMRs"):

• prohibit advertising which misleads traders (Reg 3);
• sets out the conditions under which comparative advertising is permitted (Reg 4) - including the condition that the ad must not be misleading either under Reg 3 or the CPRs (see above);
• requires traders and bodies responsible for codes of conduct or monitoring compliance with such codes not to promote misleading advertising and comparative advertising which is not permitted (Reg 5).

And, unlike the rather limp Advertising Standards Association advertising codes, these puppies have teeth - criminal and civil enforcement remedies and nasty accompanying powers.

West End ad agencies will never be the same again.