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Tuesday, 10 January 2017

Rolling Out The #Brexit Pork Barrel?

While Brexit confusion continues to reign, most people seem focused on how the UK plans to negotiate with the EU, rather than what the government plans to do for those in the UK who will suffer.

Size matters in trade negotiations, and it's clear that the EU and many other trading partners will simply set their own terms in any deal with Little Britain. 

That's why Theresa May keeps using the weasel words 'the best possible deal'. She doesn't know what terms will be offered and won't be able to change them anyway.

That's also why, when faced with acting as the Tories' human shield in such futile discussions, the UK's chief negotiator quit.

So it's the resulting domestic negotiations over who bears the impact of Brexit which should be occupying most people's attention now. 

The Tories may have blundered into Brexit, but they regard continuing anti-EU sentiment and the total meltdown among opposition parties as a vast political opportunity.  Word has it they've come up with a political list of about 50 sectors and related regions, ranked by how badly they'll be affected by Brexit and their need for pork barrelling financial support if the Tories are to win the next General Election:
216... "Lord Bridges confirmed the Government was carrying out such an analysis. The Government had looked at over 100 production sectors. It had then consolidated its analysis into 51 sectors, taking into account “the size and contribution that each of these sectors makes to the economy”, and “the way those sectors are treated in EU law and how future negotiations might bear down on them”. The 51 sectors were not necessarily “the most important or the biggest”, but focusing on them had helped the Government to get the information into “a manageable format”" [emphasis added]
Car makers/workers are clearly very high on the list, for example, because they employ a lot people (soon to be robots anyway?) assembling cars from imported components, so they were urgently promised total government support.  Since Leavers are against even remaining in the EU Customs Union, that open promise means taxpayers will pay the car makers' additional import/export costs - which could be a lot of pork from the barrel a big subsidy. 

Now that the lid is off, you can bet that plenty of others are rushing to Downing Street (by car, not train) for their share, hence the Tories desire to avoid a 'running commentary' on their Brexit plans.  They'll want to 'hold all the cards' and 'keep them close to their chest' - setting the lobbyists against each other and distracting everyone else by re-announcing old trade deals and hinting at 'negotiations' with Brussels.

Meanwhile, Rome will continue to burn as the domestic issues queue up like so many strike-bound trains and A&E patients. But the Tories will blame the EU for those, too, just as they did with their 'promise' to "spend the £350m a week on the NHS".  Rest assured it'll be the EU's "harsh trade terms" that are the cause of all the May-hem...

In fact, I'm sure the Tories hope they'll never have to mention an opposing political party again.  From now on it'll be the Tories v Brussels, and any potentially shaky non-beLeavers will simply get a little meat from the barrel see the benefits of "the best possible deal for Britain".

Or will they?

The biggest challenge to the Tories' plans is hard economics, not Brussels or the Corbynistas. There's been 'no money' available in the UK public sector since 2010. So a worse trade deal with the EU means having to find extra money for the pork barrel to compensate those hit by Brexit.  

But writing blank cheques to uncompetitive industries is not sustainable, and certainly won't go down well with pesky foreign bondholders or the IMF. Remember 1976 and the eventual battles with the coal miners? Or the fury over the bank bailouts? If you're looking for a current case study, keep your eye on developments in Greece.

So maybe those hoping for a bit of R&R by topping the Tories' Brexit Pork Barrel Support list should indulge in a little "Relocation and Retraining" instead...

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