Wednesday, 18 March 2020

Get Ready For... 18 Months Of On/Off Supression Measures

Source: Imperial College Covid-19 Response Team
This is the Imperial College COVID 19 report that forced the British government to switch from its reliance on 'mitigation' measures and potential "herd immunity" to 'suppression' measures favoured by most other countries on Earth to avoid their healthcare systems being crushed by sheer numbers of victims being admitted to hospital and/or intensive care units (ICU). 

The report was probably adopted by the Tories merely because it carried the word "Imperial" but, hey, at least it had the desired outcome.

The report explains that suppression measures (isolation for those sick or vulnerable; social distancing; a ban on mass gatherings; and closure of schools/universities) will need to last 18 months, but could be switched on and off during that time to prevent the second and third 'waves' that we saw from the 1918-19 influenza pandemic.

Only the major social distancing and school closures would be 'triggered' with the other suppression measures remaining in place.

The two major suppression measures could be switched “off” when only 50 people in a week are admitted to ICU with COVID 19, then switched on again if 100 people in a week are admitted to ICU; “off” again when only 50 people in a week are admitted to ICU; and so on...

It is estimated that social distancing and school closures would apply in 12 of the 18 months (see above chart).

The report considers it is reasonable to assume that after 18 months we should have a vaccine that has been given to enough people for the suppression measures to be switched off completely.

What this will mean in economic and social terms is anyone's guess, but Brexit seems unlikely to be achievable until it's over, since government, businesses and citizens will not be in a position to understand Brexit impact, let alone deal with it. 

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