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Tuesday, 29 September 2009

Never Say Don't... Without Saying Do...

Hat-tip to the Financial Services Club for highlighting Newsweek's quotes of the credit crunch. The last one in particular caught my eye. It was taken from a speech by President Obama in New York on 14 September:
“I want everybody here to hear my words. We will not go back to the days of reckless behaviour and unchecked excess at the heart of this crisis, where too many were motivated only by the appetite for quick kills and bloated bonuses. Those on Wall Street can not resume taking risks without regard for consequences and expect that next time, American taxpayers will be there to break their fall.”
Wise words, but beware the power of suggestion when quoting them. The word 'not' only appears twice amidst 67 other words describing how to bring the economy to its knees. Cue vague public agreement from Wall Street, but no real sense of understanding that would help generate change. That's because, despite the context, bankers hear this:
“....go back to the days of reckless behaviour and unchecked excess at the heart of this crisis, where too many were motivated only by the appetite for quick kills and bloated bonuses. Those on Wall Street can resume taking risks without regard for consequences and expect that next time, American taxpayers will be there to break the fall.”
Now I don't mean to suggest that the President is missing a trick when it comes to great orations or political rhetoric. The problem lies in Newsweek's choice of sound bite.

By contrast, I prefer a quote from Lord Turner's recent attacks on the same evils. And the strong adverse reaction of bankers illustrates why it is better to speak in positive terms about change. Not only does the reaction signal that the bankers realise Lord Turner is not suggesting a return to past practices, but also their real anger at the vision of what's expected of them in the new world - they've been launched along the 'change curve':
"...the top management of banks... need to operate within limits. They need to be willing, like the regulator, to recognise that there are some profitable activities so unlikely to have a social benefit, direct or indirect, that they should voluntarily walk away from them. They need to ask searching questions about whether the complex structured products they sold to corporate and institutional customers, truly did deliver real hedging value or simply encouraged those institutions into speculative and risky exposures which they did not understand: and, if the latter, they should not sell them even if they are profitable. They need to be willing to accept the capital and other requirements which will be imposed on activities of little value and considerable risk, rather than deploy lobbying power to argue against such constraints on the basis of a simplistic assertion that all innovation is always valuable."
Another way to explain is to imagine what activity we would see more of, if we were filming a world where the proposed change had occurred, versus what we would see less of. This was a useful tool for change management we used at GE, designed to harnessing the power of suggestion in a positive way. Never say 'Don't...', without saying 'Do...'.

Monday, 28 September 2009

Why She Buys

Interesting tips from a book Why She Buys, by Bridget Brennan, posted on the Amazon Payments blog:
  • don't hide your customer service number

  • simple checkout process

  • use trusted payment methods, confirm orders/shipment immediately by email

  • have a decent returns policy

  • recommend complementary items

  • show examples of gifts

  • allow zoom on product shots

  • keep your site clutter-free

  • be transparent about shipping costs
Reminds me of some research that challenged the idea that women aren't comfortable with technology. As others have pointed out that, sure it should be stylish, but it also has to work simply. That means minimising the need for instructions and cables like spaghetti.

Intel also found that women are very influential when it comes to the gadgets guys buy, and even spend more time online gaming than young men.

Oh, and check out GeekSugar, 'where geek is chic'. Hat-tip to AllWomensWeekend.

Wednesday, 23 September 2009

FSA Chairman Shocks City Along Change Curve

Lord Turner has reiterated his assertion that much activity in the City is ‘socially useless' and 'of no real use to humanity’. Why? Because he knows it draws blood:
'Quite honestly I am appalled, disgusted, ashamed and hugely embarrassed that I should have lived to see someone supposed to be held in high esteem and who already commands a senior and crucially important position as effective head of the UK regulatory regime making such damaging and damning remarks.' Howard Wheeldon, senior strategist, BGC Partners, 27 August 2009.
And so it's clear that such remarks from the City's regulator are just the sort of shock the City needs to begin its journey along the curve towards the cultural change the taxpayer wants to see. The anger exhibited by Mr Wheeldon, a 30 year City veteran, is merely a step in that journey. The chart says 'Depression' is next, which may be right in more ways than one...

Tuesday, 22 September 2009

Gordo Got You Down? Try Power 2010!

If you aren't thoroughly disillusioned with UK politics and hell-bent on doing something about it, I don't know how much more mayhem it will take.

The good news is that even Gordon Brown admits he has to unwind his vast public sector binge of the past twelve years. The chips are really down.

But as the great HST himself said, "when the going gets tough, the weird turn pro".

So now is the time to ensure we get to keep and invest in what's important.

Enter Power 2010, a campaign chaired by Helena Kennedy and funded by the Joseph Rowntree Charitable Trust and the Joseph Rowntree Reform Trust.

Like MySociety, Power 2010 uses the internet to enable you to share your thoughts in a way that politicians cannot ignore without being called to public account. It doesn't matter whether Parliament is sitting or not. The internet is always on, 24-hours of disinfecting sunlight shining into the Westminster pit.

So please share your ideas now, at http://www.power2010.org.uk/page/s/yourideas.

Friday, 11 September 2009

Diversification Challenge

Some of us have been discussing the need to diversify more.

There are numerous tips on how to make sure that not all your eggs are in one basket. But they all assume that you have a great deal of time and a pretty sophisticated understanding of finance and financial services.

Like it or not, even with plenty of time on his/her hands, the 'man on the Clapham omnibus' is no financial giant.

So most people need diversification explained as simply as possible, and in a way that enables them to achieve it easily and conveniently.

What is diversification? The eggs in one basket idea is pretty simple, but needs some numbers: you are less likely to have all your eggs broken if you have 10 eggs in each of 10 baskets, rather than 100 eggs in one basket. Following this principle, you become automatically better off every time you add another basket for the same number of eggs. So you’d be much better protected against egg breakage if you had 5 eggs in each of 20 different baskets.

An interesting challenge would be to start with what a truly diversified portfolio of assets looks like, based on using a small amount of money. For argument's sake, one could start with a figure of £10,680 - the most the government allows you to salt away without locking it up til you're 98 years old, or paying tax on the returns.

But such government policy actually prohibits diversification, yet heavily subsidises regulated investments at the expense of alternatives.

That’s because most people with surplus cash should use up their tax-free allowances first, and few will have anything left over. Research cited by the Guardian in June 2011 suggests the average UK person can afford to save £97.10 per month.

The list of asset classes is long, yet the money allocated to those tax-free allowances can't be invested in the full range of potential assets, even by putting their money in the hands of managers who can invest more widely. Generally, you may only invest your tax-free allowances in regulated investments. And all sorts of rules, policies and other restrictions limit the types of assets in which regulated fund managers can invest. So even regulated fund managers are unable to adequately diversify the investment pots they manage. This must necessarily affect the value and performance of the funds they manage. Such effects may be market-driven and/or behavioural.

Then there's the tricky subject of asset correlations: if all the assets you've invested in behave the same way at the same time, then you aren't diversified. Apparently the correlation in the performance of assets has been increasing of late, but may be about to unwind in some cases.

First step along the way to meeting the diversification challenge should be to figure out a reasonably detailed list of asset classes. Then we should modify the regulatory framework to enable people to invest at least their tax free allowance in each of them. The list of assets can divide and divide, but I don't think we start out with a sufficiently granular picture. In reality, I think such a list might look like the following - note that I include different types of 'funds', and separate regulated from unregulated, because their performance can be affected by the differing levels of regulation and permitted classes of investments they can make. However, I'm not including instruments like spread bets, contracts for differences or futures, since these are merely contracts that get you exposure to the various assets. Am I right or wrong?

  1. cash
  2. savings accounts
  3. fixed interest savings/bonds - government, corporate
  4. person-to-person loans
  5. shares listed on a regulated or 'recognised' exchange
  6. shares not listed on a regulated exchange
  7. exchange traded funds (ETFs) listed on a regulated exchange
  8. ETFs not listed on a regulated exchange
  9. regulated managed funds
  10. unregulated managed funds
  11. regulated hedge funds
  12. unregulated hedge funds
  13. venture capital funds
  14. venture capital trusts
  15. regulated funds of funds
  16. unregulated funds of funds
  17. commercial property
  18. rural property
  19. residential property (owner occupied)
  20. residential property (buy-to-let)
  21. perishable commodities (e.g. cocoa, wheat)
  22. non-perishable commodities (e.g. oil, gold and other precious metals)
  23. art
  24. classic cars
  25. fine wine
  26. currencies
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