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Monday, 12 October 2009

Those Squealing MPs Are Back!

Isn't it reassuring to see the piggies back from yet more holiday, fighting every effort to have their snouts hauled out of the trough?

My personal favourite is the one squealing about 'subjective judgements' in the legal review of her own expense claims, but not the subjective judgements made in how she actually filed them. As a chief architect of the Nanny State she should've known better. Experience how subjectively angry this makes you feel, by staring at the defiant face below for 30 seconds. Then exercise your own subjective judgement at Power 2010.

Friday, 9 October 2009

John Thain's 10 Lessons of the Credit Crunch

I would summarise the recent remarks of former Merrill Lynch CEO, John Thain, at Wharton Business School in the 10 points below (my adds in italics). But two general observations. First, John says he doesn't believe there could be another bubble as damaging as this particular one, whereas we can't possible know that. It seems a lot safer to assume there will be a more damaging bubble, so we can at least consider what it might be and have some chance of acting to minimise or avoid the consequences. And, second, John is pessimistic that we'll heed these lessons of the credit crunch. So, logically, he would have to concede we're in for a repeat.
  1. Loan/mortgage brokers should be incentivised based on loan performance, not just volume;

  2. Loan owners who securitise must retain a significant proportion of the equity;

  3. Government sponsored entities should be not-for-profit (i.e. they can run at a profit, but can't distribute profits, with an exception here in favour of the Treasury, surely);

  4. The issuers of securities need to explain not just the risk in the security, but also what residual risk remains with the issuer and how it plans to cover those risks (this would demonstrate more clearly the inter-relationship between markets for credit and insurance, the use of shadow banks, and related assumptions);

  5. Banks must reserve more capital as a proportion of total assets in a rising market, so they can afford to reserve less in a falling market;

  6. Private equity firms should not be free of leverage controls (which suggests they need to make the same risk explanation in 4 above to their investors as issuers of other securities, regardless of whether those investors are 'sophisticated' or market counterparties);

  7. Financial regulatory structures need to be more logical, less duplicative, less expensive, with no gaps;

  8. Compensation should be variable, reflect how earnings are generated, tied to longer-term performance, aligned with shareholders' interests and ultimate financial results;

  9. Credit risk management needs to be improved - but the crisis has demonstrated that once toxic assets are on the balance sheet it's tough to get rid of them, so there has to be some recognition that a government guarantee is ultimately necessary to remove them;

  10. Financial institutions must pay for their implicit government guarantee, over and above existing FDIC or other financial compensation schemes.

Wednesday, 7 October 2009

Never Retire


The pensions crisis has dragged on for years now. The hole is £200bn deep, and recent stock market rises have not helped to fill it, because bond yields fell at the same time. In fact some households are now missing 5 years worth of living expenses.

Listening to the experts, there is no plan for getting individuals out of this mess. Meanwhile corporations are busy minimising their exposure as best they can, and the UK courts have (grudgingly) upheld the law allowing employers to require us to 'retire' at 65.

Tempted as I am to campaign to raise the 'retirement age', I think we should forget it. It's only there for our employers' benefit, and they may not last long enough for it to matter anyway. For us, there is no retirement, only age. We have no pension 'entitlements'. The welfare state is dead. Investing for the future is like trying to beat the casino.

Like it or not we're in charge of our own welfare, and we need to take control. Some are calling this process "rewirement", which is nice. 'Work' is not a chore that can ever be dispensed with, simple as that. And we can't rely on a single employer. We need multiple revenue streams in case any one of them dries up. We have to remain alert to opportunities, and be flexible enough to take each one. And so on. Until we drop.

Monday, 5 October 2009

Rower's Revenge 2009

Well, that's a wrap for 2009.

An average of 4.84 training sessions a week for the past 50 weeks and a time of 1:39:59 in the Rower's Revenge - 58th overall, 11th in M40-49 group - just pipping Oikonomics, who smoked me on the bike. I was 49th and 9th respectively last year, so I'm going to have to do something radical next season...

In the meantime, I've raised 60% of my target for Prostate UK - you can help beat that by donating at: http://www.justgiving.com/simondeanejohns/.

Join us next year!


Thanks to SussexSportPhotography.com for the pic.

Wednesday, 30 September 2009

Market Research and Social Media

Today I presented again on 'Behavioural Targeting of Online Advertising', this time at the 5th Annual Online Research Conference in London. Not that I advise any clients in the area, but I've tried to keep up to date in light of the whole Phorm controversy.

Unfortunately I couldn't stay for the day, but I did catch the morning.

I enjoyed Mark Earls' presentation on the changing relationships between people and organisations, and the role of market researchers as mediators who can help everyone adjust to the new reality. It was also interesting that he picked up on the useful role that the tons of publicly available data can play, and that reminded me of Hans Rosling's excellent presentation on that subject at TED:



Mike Hall of Verve tried to define a new medium called the 'online brand community'. There was no time for questions but this seems to assume the brand is at the centre of things, and I wonder what Mike would say about the research value of comments people publish in the complete absence of the brand? In distilling the essence of community in 6 'rules', Mike also said that 'participation is the oxygen of the community'. But surely the 'oxygen' is whatever induces participation. And it's too simplistic to state as another rule that people participate online to obtain information. Some want to broadcast, others to listen. As the guys from InSites Consulting reported, people tweet to chat socially, 'show off' a rare URL, upload photos, or because they're curious, want a laugh or to be made to wonder. I guess that information is at the heart of all those things, but there's far more to it.

I'm sure the afternoon was just as thought-provoking. Definitely an event to keep an eye out for next year.
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