Sunlight Fades From EU Summer, Hairy Bankers To Holiday In Caves

Well, that's it folks. It's mid-July, and we can all head for the beach, the hills or the village boules court, secure in the knowledge that only 8 banks failed European Stress Tests with a total shortfall of €2.5bn.

Everything will be here when we get back.

Right?

I mean, it's not like Italy's predicament is putting any strain on the zerozone, or the US is in the process of bursting it's 'debt ceiling' and teetering on the edge of a downgrade by those ever-reliable ratings agencies, is it?

And even if the bigger picture does take a turn for the worse, surely the hacks will finally stop hacking celebrity voice mails and warn us?

Wrong.

If we're lucky there might be some hand-wringing and dithering over uncertainty about what's to be done; before a staccato burst of post-Lehman style, over-the-weekend bail-outs, bail-ins sales and mergers involving banks, insurers, pension funds and even whole countries. Greece will become an EU-protectorate - no sovereignty, but a great place to go sailing.

But what's really so uncertain?

When a borrower - be it a country, a bank or anyone else - is insolvent, there's a stark choice for lenders to make. That choice is not between a higher and lower rate of interest or return on your principal. It's about how much of your principal you are prepared to lose. All, or some? A 'haircut' you must have. Like the one Nicholas Brady arranged for lenders to Latin America in the '80s. Louis Gargour of LNG Capital (with whom I found myself chatting about Brady Bonds and short-selling on Thursday night) explains this nicely in the clip below.

In Europe we lack leadership. We lack decisiveness in the face of uncertainty. And, without either, there's little official appetite for sunlight - for hard facts. Officials who are supposed to be 'in charge' placate each other with 'stress tests' and other PR puffery. In effect, they would rather live in the dark and let their hair grow, than lead the way to the barber.

I presume they will holiday in caves.

Cut Greece Loose

Cutting the Gordian knot

Talk about Zeitgeist - last Saturday morning I was in Porto, reading about the Greek crisis in The Economist. It was my first trip to Portugal, which I guess was good timing for them, economically speaking. Next month, Spain receives some of the Pragmatic Pound. And I'd like to think I'm doing my bit for Ireland, albeit on the meter, by assisting a financial start-up there (sorry, still in stealth).

But I won't be bailing out Greece.

Tax-dodging, low productivity and overly generous pensions aside, The Economist reckons the key to that country's dismal plight is political patronage. "Greece needs transparent and impartial rules, but politicians are not keen to limit the scope for dishing out favours." Everything from railways to medical budgets leaks cash to powerful lobby groups.

And, reading on, it seemed to me that in this sense the Greek rioters have more in common with the proponents of the "Arab Spring" than their EU colleagues. As the ebbing economic tide exposes the littered wrecks of corrupt schemes and relationships, the have-nots are descending in droves on the survivors and what's left of their loot. In Syria, the crowds are putting the "squeeze on Assad" by demanding a "civil democracy" that comprises free elections, freedom of speech and assembly, protection of minorities and an end to repression. The longer the government resists, the more citizens withhold labour, and capital flees. In return, the regime dishes out more favours, stokes inflation and the country edges further toward meltdown. Egypt is clearly further along. Libya perhaps further still.

This chaos is vital for renewal - though bloodshed is not essential. Back in June '09 I suggested that the UK's constitutional reform must be a messy process, and it's proving just that, but riot-free (you can ignore the photo calls). A dynamic, open, democratic process that encourages broad engagement by all stakeholders cannot realistically be neat and linear.

Though in May 2010 I also suggested going short EU banks and long riot shields. And if things do turn nasty it's perhaps worth bearing in mind Mathias Koenig-Archibugi's reminder to The Economist of the lines from "The Third Man":

“In Italy for 30 years under the Borgias they had warfare, terror, murder, and bloodshed, but they produced Michelangelo, Leonardo da Vinci and the Renaissance. In Switzerland they had brotherly love, they had 500 years of democracy and peace, and what did that produce? The cuckoo clock.”

The point is, we do the Greeks no favours by bailing out their system of political patronage. The bureaucratic emperors must be shown to have no clothes.

So cut Greece loose, I say. Only then will the Greeks have their Renaissance.

So Many Targets, So Few Bullets

Okay, it's been a looong week, it's 2:20am, my cab leaves for the airport at 4:00 and I haven't packed yet. So there are two chances of a decent post this week...

In all fairness, the dazzling array of targets hasn't exactly allowed one to focus one's thoughts - I mean, I've been hammering away on the Tweet button like a chimp on speed. So all I can usefully do is commend that frenetic feed to you, as a parting gift.

But if I had to choose, these would be my top 8:

1. Zero Hedge: on whether the US and Europe will track Japan's 21 year slide (and counting);
   
2. Spectator: that Rebekah Brooks statement on phone-hacking in full;
   
3. Naked Capitalism: Partying on the Edge of the Eurozone Volcano - I love that title;
   
4. Naked Capitalism: Fukushima Cover Up Unravels;
   
5. Guardian: What Twitter thinks of the News of the World, visualised;
   
6. P2P Banking: The US Government Accountability Office's Guide to US Regulation on P2P Lending;
   
7. Schumpeter: On being sacked for telling tales 'through' the media; and
   
8. Chris Marsden's observations on what the Dead Parrot Sketch and UK Media regulation have in common.

And, hey, I have a whole hour left to pack. So time for a little light entertainment:

Strike All You Like: The World Has Changed

Change Curve

I've never really understood strikes. And, given the timing of the current round in the UK, I suspect those who go on strike may not either. But I think this lot are a good sign.

It means the strikers and those who empathise (many private sector pensioners, for example) have moved on from the initial shock of discovering there is no money to fund generous pensions.

And they have moved through denial that this means their own pensions.

And they have reached the phase of fear and anger about the fact that the world isn't as the same as they thought it was when they decided to do whatever job it is they've decided not to do on Thursday.

Next stop: depression.

And then maybe acceptance and a measure of understanding. After all, it's a feature of our existence that we become complacent, vulnerable to change, and blame everyone else for any misfortune when change arrives. Our defences against disaster weaken over time.

And, finally, planning how to move forward into a very different future.

It's that fundamental.

Because we aren't talking about mistreatment of a colleague, or any other point of principle. The current round of strikes is all about venting collective anger, though not in the Greek style. Yet.

And anger on this scale means the whole world has changed, not just your own lot.

So, all power to the strikers, I say. In fact, let's all get out there on Thursday and have a bloody good shout. And, Hell, why not spend Friday drowning our sorrows?

On the weekend we can all indulge in a little critical thought.

And on Monday, we can plan how to move on.

Linked Data: An Energy Credit Rating?

I received a love letter from EON recently, telling me they love me so much they're going to increase my direct debit. That way, I will "build up a credit over summer" and enable EON to spread its bill over the year.

Sadly, this is a case of unrequited love. I do not want to leave any surplus cash with EON, especially when they haven't mentioned paying me any interest on the credit - or even putting the interest toward my bill.

But on the upside, EON's letter did prompt me to call @Oikonomics, who is fairly heavily involved in an alternative energy proposition, amongst many other things. We got talking about Green Deal and feed-in-tariffs and the challenges of comparing the official option for financing your personal alternative energy generating/saving with alternative means of financing. One idea is to enable you to generate an "Energy Credit Rating" to use as a base for comparing the overall benefit to an alternative energy option. It could combine your MPAN billing number, linked to some data from the Met Office about average sunlight/wind in your area, local energy prices for what you buy and what you generate, the Feed-in-Tariff scheme, and your own credit rating.

Linking some of this data may also help reduce the complexity/cost associated with making energy price changes.

Oh, and Bruce also told me Ovo credits your bill with the equivalent of 3% interest on any credit balance (see under "Earn from Energy").

Image from Energy Saving Trust.