Why The GIB Should Be P2P

In this month's Financial World, Michael Mainelli helpfully explains why the Green Investment Bank "supporters get a hard ride from City anlaysts." The problem, he says, is lack of independence from the government, especially since government policy on alternative energy is "capricious".

I like the "slightly subversive" suggestion for an index-linked carbon bond with the coupon set to the government's performance against its green energy targets. Although if the City won't gamble on government policy, we probably shouldn't let the government bet taxpayer money on its own performance either.

However, there is a way to encourage both broad-based retail investment and widespread household commitment to alternative energy without direct government support. Allow individuals to directly finance each other's alternative energy projects via a dedicated channel on any peer-to-peer finance platform - or, indeed, on dedicated peer-to-peer platforms. Credit risk would sit with individual lenders who are able to diversify across many projects and limit the amount allocated to each one, while earning a better return on their surplus cash than bank savings rates. The initial and ongoing capital requirements for each platform operator would be nominal, compared to the £3bn currently being contemplated for the GIB. And the transparency of online P2P platforms would enable easy measurement of the capital dedicated to alternative energy. In effect, the government would be leveraging its subsidies towards feed-in tariffs etc., not by borrowing on its own account through the bond markets, but by attracting surplus personal savings that currently lack a decent return.

As I've previously explained, this would also avoid the primary risks associated with the vertical credit model of existing bond structures, namely:

1. The separation of lender and borrower, and fragmentation of the original loan note makes it harder to adjust loans when borrowers get into trouble (as highlighted by the 'fraudclosure' and 'forced repurchase' problems in the US also explained in Confessions of a Subprime Lender).
2. The process of transforming 'maturity' (changing the date when loans or debt instruments are due to expire) creates balance sheet risk for the intermediary.
3. It is unclear whether ratings, accounting and audit functions really do remove information asymmetry between borrowers and lenders. Do we have "credible" ratings agencies, when only three dominate the market and they are paid by the issuers of the securities they grade? Similar problems exist in the accounting and audit markets - hence the calls for reforms in these areas.
4. There are huge challenges for subsequent bondholders to undertake adequate due diligence on large volumes of original loans long since disconnected from the bonds and often not even under the bond issuer's control.
5. Pressure to reduce the amount of capital required by each operator in the vertical chain of intermediaries results in a game of regulatory, tax, capital and ratings arbitrage that spans the globe and creates endlessly complex corporate structures.
6. Various factors lead to underestimation of the capital required for the private and implicit public sector guarantees required to support it. This is further complicated by the fact that "...the performance of highly-rated structured securities... in a major liquidity crisis... become highly correlated as all investors and funded institutions are forced to sell high quality assets in order to generate liquidity."
7. The knowledge that the market can ultimately 'put' problem securities on the taxpayer (whether this is explicit, implicit, direct or indirect) creates a moral hazard that seems to increase in line with the demand for the securities until the system irretrievably melts down.

Horizontal credit intermediation, is a feature of peer-to-peer finance platforms - like Zopa, Ratesetter and Funding Circle - where each borrower's loan amount is provided via many tiny one-to-one loans from many different lenders at inception.

The one-to-one legal relationship between borrower and lender/loan owner is maintained for the life of the loan via the same loan origination and servicing platform (with a back-up available), allowing for ready enforcement. The intermediary has no balance sheet risk, and therefore no temptation to engage in regulatory, tax or other arbitrage. Loan maturities do not need to be altered to achieve diversification across different loans, loan terms and borrowers. The basis of the original underwriting decision remains transparent and available as the basis for assessing the performance of the loan against its grade, as well as for pricing the loan on any resale or refinance, making due diligence by subsequent owners easy. To the extent that credit risk were to concentrate on certain borrowers or types of borrowers, those risks would remain visible throughout the life of the loan, rather than rendered opaque through fragmentation, re-packaging and re-grading. Similarly, the transparency of the initial underwriting and subsequent loan performance removes the scope for moral hazard.

Image from Carnation Canada.

Anyone For 8% Market Share?

Barclays' withdrawal from the asset-based small business lending market is a real shot in the arm for peer-to-peer finance.

The head of the Barclays Business unit is quoted as saying, “It’s the leasing and hire purchase side [where] we found our proposition was not that compelling, comprehensive and competitive. Our market share was small, about 8pc.”

Those are my gob-smacked italics.

According to the same article, the Finance and Leasing Association "said asset finance represents the majority of debt-financed business, and that its members provided £1.7bn of funding to support business investment in December, 5pc higher than the same month in 2009."

Barclays says it can target this £21bn market segment with unsecured loans. But of course it's talking through its hat. The Basel III head-wind blows strongest in the unsecured lending space. So even if Barclays can magic the £1.7bn asset-based portfolio into unsecured loans, it doesn't seem a great alternative use of capital.

But it's an interesting strategy if you're lending some of your own cash on a peer-to-peer platform, instead of leaving it in a savings account.

Barclays stands to lose out on both fronts.

Image from Gogherty.com.

Hey Eric: Lend Your Euros Directly To Other People

Like previous financial crises, this one won't end until individual and collective confidence in banks and the financial system is restored. And while it's all very well for the Eurozone's political masters to be demonstrating their 'political will' to hold the Eurozone together at individual taxpayers' expense, their latest attempt at restoring confidence has not exactly impressed Spain's debtors...

But such bail-out headlines merely the typically dominant institutional narrative. The real question is whether the Euro and EU institutions actually have the confidence of EU citizens - especially taxpayers. A recent poll suggests they do not: only 42% of Europeans trust the European Union - reflecting a general disenchantment with EU institutions over the past few decades. Meanwhile, in sharp contrast, bottom-up facilitators that enable citizens to participate in shaping and personalising their own services have done very well.

This is reflected in the behaviour of EU citizens on the economic front. The implications of the one-size-fits-all Eurozone monetary policy seem to be regarded as just as unfair by German taxpayers and the French savers supporting Eric Cantona's suggestion for mass bank-withdrawals on 7 December as by those hitting the streets of Greece and Ireland. The Guardian quotes Valérie Ohannesian, of the French Banking Federation, as saying Cantona's appeal is "stupid in every sense". Yet, crucially, she did not explain why people should feel more confident about leaving their money on deposit, or why it is fair that banks receive taxpayer bail-outs while taxes increase and spending is cut. In the absence of any other narrative, each bail-out undermines our confidence even further, to the point where we hit the streets and seriously consider suggestions like Eric Cantona's.

But it doesn't have to be this way. There is a bottom-up narrative emerging, and our politicians need to focus on it.

Eric Cantona's confident call for mass withdrawals hints at the fact that people are prepared to put their money where their mouth is. But it would be futile for those with surplus cash languishing in low interest savings accounts to withdraw it all and hide it under their beds. Instead, they should join those who already put their money to work helping others, by lending it directly on peer-to-peer lending platforms to creditworthy people and businesses at a decent rate that also represents a decent return.

Swiss Tailwind For Personal & Small Business Social Finance

Banks will find it more costly and less profitable to offer short term unsecured personal and small business finance under Basel III rules, according to a recent McKinsey report.

To comply with the new rules, Banks face a long review of their businesses and products to reduce risk, use capital more efficiently and minimise the need for market funding by the end of 2012.

Which is more great news for participants in the 'capital light' social finance business models, like Zopa and Funding Circle in the UK.

As I mentioned in the context of the proposals to regulate vertical shadow banking functions, people using these 'horizontal intermediaries' benefit from:

1. Loan amounts being split into small one-to-one loans at inception, rather than having to wait for the slicing, re-packaging and grading involved in asset-backed securitisation;
2. A direct, one-to-one legal relationship between borrower and lender for the life of the loan, enabling better control over debt adjustment and collection, where that becomes necesary;
3. Lenders retaining day-to-day control of the management of their money and credit risk, minimising the capital required by the intemediary;
4. The intermediary not needing to slice and re-package debt to alter loan maturities, since lenders can manage this by assigning loans of unwanted duration to other lenders;
5. The intermediary having no balance sheet risk, and therefore no temptation to engage in expensive and complex regulatory, tax or other arbitrage;
6. Transparency in the original underwriting decision and loan performance against grade - making lenders' due diligence easy, and removing the moral hazard of the kind we see in vertical intermediation models, where the endless slicing and re-packaging makes due diligence hard.

For these reasons, one might expect banks to allow their depositors to lend directly to their personal loan and small business customers. But it seems unlikely the banks could feed themselves on the scale of fees their nimble competitors can afford to charge. And they would soon face calls to allow the peer-to-peer approach for mortgages and larger corporate loans - by which time other nimble providers may well beat them to those segments too...

Image from Gogherty.com.

Further Boost To Non-bank SME Finance

Last week, The Receivables Exchange secured $17 million in funding from Bain Capital Ventures.

I've been watching these guys since I learned of their launch in a response to my post about Zopa's trade finance efforts in November 2008. The coincidence was striking then, but even more so when they announced their integration with Ariba Network, the spend management services provider, in December '09.

Here's the video on how the Receivables Exchange works.

The key feature about this form of trade finance is that credit risk can be tied firmly to the buyer, rather than the supplier listing the invoice for 'sale'. There are various ways to understand and mitigate that risk, depending on the size of the buyer and whether it's listed/rated. I'll spare you the detail. Interestingly, the UK Treasury has just launched a consultation on how the government might support non-bank business finance, focusing on corporate credit assessment and transparency.

Of course, the primary challenge is one of marketing this model to enough time-starved small business owners to build 'critical mass' (an expresson I have come to fear and loathe) - hence the $17 million.

Definitely a space to watch.

E-invoicing Integrated With SME Finance Platform

Alternative trade finance for small businesses is beginning to snowball - at least in the US. Early this month, the Receivables Exchange announced its integration with the Ariba Network, a leading provider of spend management services.

The press release says the integration will enable SMEs "to seamlessly transfer their invoices from the Ariba Network to the Exchange’s proprietary trading platform for auction. Leveraging a cash optimizer tool embedded in the latest release of the Ariba Network, suppliers can calculate their cash needs as compared to their eligible outstanding invoices and select the invoices they want to sell to help them optimize their working capital management and improve their cash flow."

This is virtually the same model Zopa and various collaborators took to potential UK clients and partners in 2008. Marketing was the only (major!) hurdle, and we were in talks with someone very big and friendly to support it. But, as is often the way with these types of services, there were simply too many interim integration steps competing against higher core priorities for the service to go into development.

Full credit to the Receivables Exchange for getting this launched - although I still think they need a bigger brand name that is already well-known to all SME's if they are going to get real traction against the established sources of trade finance. I wish them luck.

Maybe it's a signal that Zopa and its partners should dust off their plans...

Mezzanine CoCo Means Even Fatter Banking

Two recent funding initiatives not only fail to introduce openness and transparency in the credit markets, but also add complexity, shroud risk and perpetuate the enormous fees and bonuses inherent in the 'fat banking' model that many are complaining about.

Of course, I'm referring to the new form of 'contingent convertibles' or "CoCos" issued by Lloyds Banking Group and the 'mezzanine' product to be offered by the "Growth Capital Fund".

The £7bn worth of new "CoCos" issued by Lloyds Banking Group pay interest, but convert into equity if the bank's core tier one capital ratio falls below 5%. The tier one capital ratio is itself under a cloud, given its lack of predictive value in 2007 and recent analysis by Standard & Poors that "every single bank in Japan, the US, Germany, Spain, and Italy included in S&P's list of 45 global lenders fails the 8pc safety level under the agency's risk-adjusted capital (RAC) ratio." Furthermore, the ABI says it doesn't like these CoCos being included in bond indexes, because this would "effectively require some bond investors to buy these instruments and subsequently to become forced sellers if and when they convert into equity." It's worth noting that the UK government has had to invest £5.7bn (net of underwriting fees) just to avoid dilution of its 43% shareholding amidst the wopping £13.5bn in new shares. That underwriting fee must be enormous, no doubt made more so by the complexity of the new instrument.

CoCos are a type of convertible bond and are not really new. They started life as bonds that paid interest, but converted into equity if the issuer's share price hit a certain number. Apparently they were first issued by Tyco in 2000. They were popular because CoCos were not included in the diluted earnings per share calculation. However, their favourable treatment was removed and they more or less died out. Some also expressed concern about adequate disclosure of the risk that the contingency would occur, and the future impact of the conversion into equity... seems nothing has changed.

Meanwhile, Messrs Brown and Mandelson have also welcomed the recommendation for new "Growth Capital Fund" to allow medium sized businesses to publicly offer "mezzanine" debt - lending that is often unsecured, and ranks behind bank debt but ahead of equity on insolvency. Apparently, this product "would help address demand side aversion to pure equity, and provide a return above regular bank lending to reward investors". You can guess the reason for the premium to regular bank lending, and why it ranks behind banks. The Growth Capital Fund is designed to plug a "permanent gap" existed for up to "5,000 businesses" looking to raise between £2m and £10m in growth capital." It is noted that "neither banks nor equity investors were likely to fill this gap in the near future." They know that where you rank in an insolvency without security is largely academic, and there remains the very real issue as to how to effectively monitor the ongoing creditworthiness of a mid-tier company. Perhaps the proposed 'single fund manager' might find a solution. But I'll bet it will just sit there gathering money and sending statements to forlorn investors confirming the steady deduction of its fee as a percentage of gross funds under management. Already, Lloyds bankers say they are interested, no doubt hoping to recover some of their recent underwriting fees.

So it's clear that neither of these relatively complex instruments do anything to promote openness and transparency in the financial markets, but instead continue to funnel investment opportunities to intermediaries who can rely on their privileged regulatory position to charge enormous fees.

There are alternatives. At Zopa, for example, we helped figure out an invoice discounting process that is an easily understood, low margin alternative for SME trade finance, open to all - as is the Receivables Exchange. The challenge is marketing such low cost alternatives to busy SMEs amidst all the noise of the usual banking and investment marketing. Low margin financial services providers can't afford fancy advertising campaigns or to arrange open endorsement by Messrs Brown or Mandelson. Yet, to put an end to 'fat banking' and concentrated, poorly understood risk, we need to promote such open investment marketplaces, using instruments that are more easily understood and widely accessible.

Surely that's a challenge the government could help address, rather than lining bankers' pockets.

BarCampBank Valentine's Day

Forsake your loved ones! Your country needs you at BarCampBank in London on Valentine's Day.

Given that a BarCamp is about as grass-roots as you can get without actually going out into your snow-filled garden and digging, it's a great opportunity to question everything from the bottom up - to really turn the world on its head.

While, unfortunately, I have other commitments on Valentine's Day, I'm fascinated by what the attendees will come up with in terms of "new business models in the world of banking and finance", and possibly democratising the financial markets.

In an attempt to help, I plan to jot down on this post various issues and observations that occur to me this week.

Closest to my Zopa heart are person-to-person mortgages and person-to-person invoice discounting for SME's. But I'm aware that those two suggestions assume an awful lot. The real starting point should be what financial problems do people face today, how big are those problems and what array of solutions might solve them? Ideally, this inquiry should not be driven by, or viewed through the lenses of products in the market today. But it would also be interesting to question today's retail products. Do we need credit cards, for example? If so, why? And why/for whom do the financial markets exist. And so on.

Indeed, what would happen if I went AWOL for about 10 hours on Saturday ;-)

Here are my builds:

1. I reckon there are 8 characteristics that any new retail financial service will need to acquire critical mass.

2. Banks can be the back-office of financial services 2.0 - after all, the money that's not currently lent out at Zopa sits in a segregated account at RBS.

3. See Dave Birch's post on payments without banks. My 10 cents worth on alternative currencies:

• A facilitator would need to gather enough reasonably reliable data on each "currency" for users (or the facilitator itself) to estimate the exchange value.
• People could list "currencies" they have a surplus/deficit of and the facilitator could show matches, with or without estimates of exchange value.

What functions currently reserved for "authorised" financial institutions could be opened up for more lightly regulated players (following the trend set by e-money and now payment services for example).

4. Chris Skinner has listed various "next generation" financial services firms due to present at Finovate in April.

5. Note that "payment service providers" will be able to passport their services throughout the EU from 1 November 2009 - the UK regs went before Parliament yesterday. Similarly, the E-money Directive is also to be overhauled, largely to reduce the capital burden on e-money businesses, and to ease the restriction on conducting other business.

6. Here's an interesting piece of context. In December 2007, Royal Bank of Scotland paid $100bn for ABN Amro. A year later, the same money would have bought:

• Citibank $22.5bn
• Morgan Stanley $10.5bn
• Goldman Sachs $21bn
• Merrill Lynch $12.3bn
• Deutsche Bank $13bn
• Barclays $12.7bn
• And with the change $8bn .....they would be able to pick up GM, Ford, Chrysler and the Honda F1 Team.

Early Payment of SME Invoices

Today the FT reports that "88 per cent [of traders surveyed] reported bigger companies not paying on time – a factor that 72 per cent said had a serious impact on their business."

Early this year I was involved in discussions about a way for individuals with surplus cash to enable SME's to get their invoices to big corporates paid early - and at rates that are competitive with SME's current financing options, represent a great return on people's spare cash, and allow big corporates - and the public sector - to extend their payment terms. This would be additional to SME's current financing options, rather than interrupting or replacing them.

The parties required to implement the necessary process agreed how it should work in detail. Their remaining challenge was finding the SME-facing brand necessary to market the service effectively. Early discussions with the perfect brand yielded some progress, but ultimately launch depended on another of their initiatives progressing.

One way it could work, in basic terms, is that the supplier offers to assign the invoice to Zopa or a collection agent for the benefit of the Zopa members who chip in to pay it early. Notice would need to be given to the corporate buyer to pay the invoice amount to the Zopa members' account. Someone at Zopa would also need to call the corporate buyer to ensure it was happy with the arrangement and confirm the date the buyer is promising to pay. That promised date could go on the invoice listing. Zopa members could then study the listing and decide what discount rate to offer (credit reference data would be available for those that want it). There would be an auction, so pricing would be very transparent.

There's another model that would work in reverse, with buyers posting invoices it's prepared to pay - with a promised payment date - to suppliers' accounts. The suppliers could then hit a "Pay Me Now" button that takes them to the Zopa site where their invoice could be listed etc. While that model is certainly technologically possible now, I suspect that it would follow once people got the hang of the supplier-driven process.

At any rate, if you're a supplier to big corporates who's frustrated by their extended payment terms, why not contact Zopa and say you're interested in either model I've described?

Maybe the continuing explosion of the late-paying problem, coupled with falling savings rates on people's spare cash, will hasten the implementation of this solution.

War on File-Sharers Spells D-o-o-m for Net Neutrality

The UK government is planning to promote "attractively packaged content" on the internet, bowing to pressure from copyright owners to prevent online piracy.

Only figures for the music industry are cited in the consultation paper, yet various regulatory and co-regulatory solutions are proposed that will affect all copyright content online.

The paper claims that about 6.5m people in the UK (25% of UK internet users), engaged in illicit P2P file sharing in 2007. This is estimated to "cost" the "music industry" £1bn over the next 5 years, against revenues of about £1bn per annum.

So, where's the problem? The "music industry's" digital music sales increased by 28% in 2007. Sure, declining CD sales resulted in a loss, but that's like saying Ford made a loss because no one wants to by the Model T anymore. It is also conceded that the decline in CD sales wasn't due to piracy alone - supermarket discounting and the shift to digital purchases were chiefly responsible. In other words, the "music industry's" woes are born of consumer dissatisfaction.

Consumers are used to getting content for free online, knowing that providers are making money out of advertising. So it's no surprise that 91% of survey respondents file-share because the content is free. More telling is that 42% say it's because they could find everything they were looking for. In other words, constraining supply by "attractively packaging content" doesn't work, and the music industry needs to get with the programme.

Of course, file sharing isn't actually not free. File-sharers spend time and pay for wireless technology, proxy servers, encryption and communications to download the material. No figures are given for how much revenue this generates, but at 6.5m UK consumers, it seems to be a sizeable market. I wonder who's making money out of that?

The chief cause of music industry misery actually seems to be the cost of enforcing copyright via the clunky legal system. They say it can cost £10,000 for each court order to obtain the IP address for each file sharer. I'm prepared to believe that, and I'm all for reducing the cost of enforcement. But that problem shouldn't need a "memorandum of understanding" among the rights owners' associations, network service providers and goverment, paragraph 3 of which says this:

"Many legal online content services already exist as an alternative to unlawful copying and sharing but signatories agree on the importance of competing to make available to consumers commercially available and attractively packaged content in a wide range of user-friendly formats as an alternative to unlawful file-sharing, for example subscription, on demand, or sharing services."

One shudders to think what is meant by "attractively packaged content". But it's implicit that any such packaging will be done by, and must suit, the few industry players who signed the MOU.

And that implies we'll be forced to pay for premium content bundled with rubbish, like "albums" on CDs. A sort of packaged internet, chosen for us by cosy institutions.

The neutral, open internet appears to be doomed.

PS: The Society for Computers and Law response to the consultation can be viewed here, and the SCL's response to proposals to increase the penalties for criminal infringement of intellectual property rights can be viewed here.

Closure of Zopa's US Credit Union Program Contrasts P2P Model

It's a sad day at Zopa, which has announced the closure of its US credit union programme due to adverse market conditions for credit union deposits and loans. My sympathy to the whole team.

But, by comparison, the steadily growing success of Zopa's UK P2P model starkly demonstrates the benefits of enabling simple, capital-efficient, transparent lending directly between responsible individuals, as opposed to the intricacies of even a straightforward savings and loan operation like a credit union.

And it's ironic that the US regulatory system could permit everything from NINJA loans to CDOs riddled with unquantifiable risks, yet fail to accommodate a model that has maintained such low delinquency in the UK for over 3 years now, and seems to be repeating that success in Italy.

Maybe one day US regulators will be more receptive.

The Long Tail of Banking: Define "Head" and "Tail" - Part 2

Fascinating post by Chris Skinner on The Long Tail of Banking.

In any such discussion, it's important to define the "head" and the "tail". In essence, Chris says:

"The Long Tail in banking would be a mass market of niche microgroups that incur no cost overheads to manage but, for each transaction, creates a small profit... You want to reach people who were previously underserved, because it would not be profitable....We are talking about children, students, the unbanked, the underbanked, the grey market, the welfare market, the pensioners, the migrant workers and more. And we are talking about social lending and saving, [e-payments], prepaid and mobile.... we need to look at prepaid and mobile for these folks."

I understand Chris to be saying that current bank customers are the "head" and everyone else as the "tail", and that the "long tail" challenge is how to get existing bank products (e.g. prepaid cards and mobile payments/banking) to the tail.

However, I view the "head" and the "tail" in terms of the breadth of product selection and related customer need, not the customers themselves. The long tail challenge being how to enable customers to find or create the product that is right for them personally. As Chris Anderson explained in his response to the recent HBR long tail review:

""Head" is the [product] selection available in the largest bricks-and-mortar retailer in the market... "Tail" is everything else, most of which is only available online, where there is unlimited shelf space."

The reason why Web 2.0 is now disrupting traditional retail banking is that banks and their direct competitors have followed a traditional "blockbuster" approach - marketing comparatively few, very inflexible products (the "head") and relying on those to attract most of the market, rather than trying to market the "tail" of products that would solve every person's individual savings, investment, borrowing and payments needs. Online facilitators, like Zopa and Kiva have spotted this, and created the means to enable consumers to create, or find, and buy the financial product that is right for each of them personally, in the same way that they can now design their own holiday instead of taking a package holiday. Using these facilitators, consumers effectively create thousands or even millions of "products".

Currently, the scale of participation in social finance platforms, and the resulting liquidity levels, only makes a long tail strategy feasible in the markets for retail savings, microfinance and personal loans. But at scale there is no reason why people can't finance each others mortgages, mutually assure general insurance type risks or offer short term trade finance for SME's and so on, depending on their individual need.

Of course, the financial wholesale or capital markets already operate like this, and long ago evolved "products", like spread-betting and CFD's, and user experiences, like City Index, that are better suited to individuals rather than large market counter-parties. Worth noting that BJSS, who helped build the Zopa platform, also developed various financial markets trading platforms.

I take Chris's point about mobile being critical to reaching the long tail, but viewing any one access technology as a gateway in itself risks a slide into "blockbuster" thinking rather than long tail thinking. To access the long tail of individual requirements, the market has to be as porous as the participants need it to be to create their own "product" whenever and wherever is convenient or useful for them. In practical terms, you should be able to (and now can) share or publish your loan request or "listing" via your pc or mobile to all the social network platforms, in the same way you can share a blog that you like.

The role of technology in creating the long tail of products that meet individual customer requirements in the payments space is perhaps a little different. The act of payment itself is very simple and doesn't need to change. But the "blockbuster" approach has meant that banks and other payments providers have treated payment as an isolated act, and supported it with a few inflexible products. Whereas, from a customer standpoint, payment is always embedded in a longer process, activity or scenario. In-store payments aside, it has been a real struggle to enable individuals to make payments and money transfers when and where they want to. Integrating payments with online shopping carts and ordering pipelines to create a satisfactory customer experience occupied the first 10 years of e-commerce development, and many still get it wrong. Mobile payments (not to be confused with mobile banking) has had several false starts and still suffers from a lack of standards and interoperability. This makes it tough to enable each user to make up his or her own payment solution to suit a specific scenario. But at least providers are now focused on solving real user problems in real scenarios - like enabling you to find a product and buy it while you're on the move or remittances from foreign workers stuck in remote compounds.

Mobile banking, on the other hand, still suffers from the old blockbuster thinking - merely offering access to the same old, inflexible bank products, rather than enabling users to make up their own. I'm sure the long hand of the Web 2.0 trend will enable consumers to get there eventually.

Prepaid Cards and Financial Services 2.0

A tip of the hat to Chris Skinner for his giant post on Prepaid Cards as a payment method.

Very timely, given the launch this week of Wigadoo:

"Collect all the money for your trip into an online event account with a virtual prepaid MasterCard®. When you come to pay for hotels, tickets or extras it's all ready and waiting for you to spend."

Chris laments that the banks are not the ones initiating prepayment tie-ups with retailers etc. But this expects too much of banks. As an example, the Wigadoo card is issued by Newcastle Building Society, but there's little chance that NBS could have dreamed up Wigadoo's use case, let alone implemented the user experience and the marketing plan. That's just not what financial institutions are good at, and it's taken the talent and experience of Andy, John and Uma to initiate and drive the whole thing, using angel money and input from the likes of Andy Phillipps and Brent Hoberman.

I've said it before, and I'll say it again: banks will be the back office, not the front, of Financial Services 2.0.

Too Early to Call Time on Web 2.0

It's fascinating to see the mainstream business press calling time on "Web 2.0". Presupposing that the Web 2.0 tag constitutes a definitive cohort of businesses who must be earning substantial revenues today, if they are ever to be successful...

This as just another consequence of the credit crunch, rather than evidence that it's suddenly crazy to start a web business dedicated to enabling users to take control of their retail, entertainment, financial and other personal affairs. It's a sign that the institutional herd is headed for safe havens and wants a slow summer at the beach, free of write-offs and any doubt that it might be missing key opportunities through its inability to invest in the current tidal wave of innovation.

But the curtain is barely up on Web 2.0, and at this rate the FT's core readership will miss the whole show.

There is plenty of non-institutional money to be had - and you don't need much of it - to help start a Web 2.0 business. The angel world is also still awash with pre-Crunch bonus money and the likes of ex-Googlers cashing in their options to do help Facebook or do their own thang. Seedcamp is happening again, and (the ironically named) Techcrunch is alive with plenty of news, even from Europe. Remember, too, that venture funding is not required to build any of the infrastructure necessary for Web 2.0 businesses to flourish. The big corporates in the internet game have taken on that job, and are still investing heavily to create the bandwidth and computing capacity on which low cost, web development start-ups like Ooyala are feeding greedily.

Seems to me that September is going to see a whole new tidal wave of innovative business launches - so it's gonna be a pretty intense summer for some!

Predictions for 2008 Revisited - Financial Services 2.0

I reckon my predictions for 2008 are looking like a pretty good bet:

"Gartner warns banks not to attempt to copy social banking practices, unless they can clearly establish a strategic intent centered on social welfare, as opposed to
traditional commercial return. Instead, banks should look to partner financial social networks, offering capabilities like transaction processing and risk management."

;-)

B2B Lending

Gartner has recently warned banks that consumer peer-to-peer lending platforms are a force to be reckoned with. Any business with a UK consumer credit licence can lend directly to consumers at Zopa, but the timing also looks good for SME's to get into their own peer-to-peer market without the aid of the banks.

A recent survey commissioned by Belgian bank KBC amongst businesses with turnover of £10m to £1bn suggests that UK businesses are continuing to borrow, even at higher rates.

“The people in the real economy, not the financial economy, are saying: ‘We’re still going, but financial fuel is going to get a lot more expensive for us,’” said Cameron Marr, general manager of the London branch of KBC Bank.

At the same time, however, 70 per cent of respondents expect credit to become less easily available. They foresee the cost of borrowing rising and loan covenants becoming tighter. The number of corporate defaults is expected to increase."

Necessity, as they say, is the mother of invention...

Your own personal economy

The red wine was flowing last night, thanks to Simon, Bill and the other fine folk at CVL, and some of the chat turned to how much of the goods and services that we buy and sell will be person-to-person in 5 or 10 years.

While I doubt that I was terribly informative last night, I'm now able to recall that, personally and professionally, I'm aware that people are already connecting economically speaking in education, complementary healthcare, event organising, lending (as a proxy for investing or saving) and borrowing, music, financing music production, stuff, accommodation, jobs and more stuff, legal services and home improvement. There must be loads more, but I'd have to start actively searching and my emails are piling up...

Could you get through the day, week, month, year only dealing with individuals?

Waiting for Gordo

I'm no political activist, nor wedded to any political party. But I'm not apathetic. I prefer my politics 'unbundled' and simply want to ensure that I'm getting real value for my tax spend - that the root causes of social problems are solved efficiently.

Research tells me that I am not alone, but what tools exist to help us achieve this?

Needless to say, the government of the day is particularly untrustworthy when it comes to demonstrating value for all the money we give it. The opposition are generally at the opposite extreme. The various media are concerned only with what is “news”, which is to say what they believe to be immediate, significant and topical - usually the posturing of the main political parties. And only the PR-skilled, lucky or very persistent ever get their message into the news. Like politicians and those who hire lobbyists.

The rest of us have been pretty much left with the National Audit Office, which provides great ammunition for everybody to use. But the NAO quite rightly focuses on how the government is currently spending or promising to spend our money now, and can't ever be seen to be using its fact finding and reporting as a basis for 'campaigning' for change.

So, it's up to us as citizens to find other ways of keeping the pressure on. But how?

Charities and other 'pressure groups' often do a good job of including the humble citizen in their activities e.g. Scope, Cancer Research, Oxfam. Otherwise, it's self-help.

Of course, "self-help" could mean voting, and even swapping your vote at the next General Election. But while you're waiting for our beloved Prime Minister to call one, you could get an overview of the problems as the politicians see them (and comment on your MP's blog), share your views with others via social networks (Facebook, MySpace, Bebo etc), comments on blogs and email, participate with other vigilantes in our 'special relationship' with the US, sign up to a petition that proposes a solution to the root cause of your problem, write to the civil servants with your problem directly, or report an issue to your local council.

If there are other self-help measures, I'd love to hear of them.

The Future of Money

Thanks to Blackbeltjones I recently had the privilege of discussing the Future of Money as part of a programme at the Royal College of Art in London.

Based on what I consider to be the relevant drivers of change, the need to solve significant consumer problems from the consumers' point of view and likely sources of resistance to change, I suggested that the innovative retail financial services of the future would tend to share the following characteristics:

1. The service is unlikely to be offered or facilitated by an entity that consumers perceive to be an “institution”;

2. The service solves the root cause of consumers’ critical need in the course of actual or desired activities, linking with trusted third parties to provide a comprehensive consumer experience;

3. The service leverages a shock amongst consumers who subsequently accept that the world has changed, yet helps them to embrace that change;

4. The service leaves day-to-day control of the management of money with the consumer;

5. The service improves rapidly with user collaboration, giving value beyond the facilitator;

6. The service will remain successful so long as the facilitator continues to invest in enhancing the service and meeting related consumer needs rather than seeking merely to enrich itself (i.e. preferring to meet the needs of stakeholders other than consumers);

7. The service is safe, easy to use, and involves communications that are fair, transparent (enabling ready comparison) and neither misleading nor patronising;

8. The service and its operator plays well with the regulators and public policy/opinion-formers.

More soon.

Personal sat nav

Hot-footing it between meetings in the central areas of most cities can be a real heart-in-the-mouth experience if you aren't sure of your route. I found myself stuck the other day and used Walkit. I plugged in the two post codes and ended up with a series of alleys and cut-throughs in central London that I'd never have worked out on the fly. You even get a calorie burn and the satisfaction of knowing how much CO2 you saved against alternative transport.