How Britain's Economic Future Still Depends On Brussels

Britain has a services-based economy: 80% of our output and employment is in services. Professional services, finance, travel, telecoms/computing are all key areas, as is degree to which retail sales are online. This is clearly an advantage for a set of islands when it comes to exports, because services don't need to be shipped. But services may be subject to other trade barriers, such as licensing requirements when offered in other countries, as well as unfair trade practices by local competitors and suppliers. Rules and how well they're enforced are important issues. About half our trade is with the EU, because it's closer than the rest of the world. The EU is also a market of 448m people, 412m of whom are internet users, with 288m online shoppers. That makes enforcement of the EU's new Digital Markets and Digital Services Acts all the more critical, regardless of the fact that the UK no longer sits at the regulatory table.

Scale of UK services exports to the EU

While we generally import more than we export, that overall trade deficit being £33bn in 2023. That's the result of a deficit of £187bn in goods imported over exports, offset by a surplus of £153bn in exported services (including services that overseas customers bought here in the UK, as well as services performed by UK firms working abroad). 

Brexit has obviously made the EU market less accessible for UK firms, so the loss of the free movement in goods, services, people and capital makes earlier comparisons unreliable. But based on trade data for 2022: 

• the EU accounts for 36% of Britain's total services exports;
• we have a trade surplus in services with 14 EU countries and a deficit of trade in services with 13 countries, our closest neighbour being the largest surplus (Ireland at £14 billion) and Spain the largest services deficit (£11 billion); 
• our single largest type of exported service was £55bn worth of “other business services”, being legal, accounting, advertising, research and development, architectural, engineering and other professional and technical services, representing 38% of all UK service exports to the EU. 
• exports of financial, travel and telecoms/computing/data services are also very significant.  

The Importance of Digital Platforms

You can see from the nature of our most successful services exports that their marketing and supply depends on digital platforms and related services, including search engines, cloud/hosting, app stores, browsers, e-commerce marketplaces and messaging services. 

While most of the services exported by British businesses will be supplied electronically to EU businesses of varying sizes, the online consumer markets are obviously also very important. In the retail sector, over a third of British business is now online, making the UK the third largest country in terms of the share of retail that is e-commerce, after the US and China. By contrast, about 15.4% of retail sales across all EU countries occur online. In absolute terms, however, the UK only has a domestic market of 66m internet users, while the EU has 412m (92%) of its population using the internet, 70% of whom (288m) buy stuff online. 

At that scale it becomes very important that the EU's digital markets are well regulated, and that businesses and their customers are shielded from unfair competition and trade practices.

How Does the EU Ensure Fair Digital Markets?

The Digital Markets Act (DMA) builds on existing competition law by rooting out unfair practices of very large digital platform operators (“gatekeepers”) when providing services that other businesses use to reach their own customers online. Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, ByteDance, Meta and Microsoft have all been designated as gatekeepers, since they effectively act as private rule-makers who could potentially create ‘bottlenecks’ and ‘choke points’ that limit access, unfairly exploit personal and business data for their own purposes and/or impose unfair conditions on market participants. All face exploratory investigations under the DMA by the European Commission in connection with search services, app stores, browsers and messaging services, to see if they might be luring away customers from other businesses who use those platform services. 

The EU's Digital Services Act (DSA), on the other hand, protects EU-based users of online communication, e-commerce, hosting and search services, by exempting intermediary service providers (“ISPs”) from certain liability for performing certain duties. There are extra requirements for ISPs with at least 45m average monthly active EU users (known as ‘very large online’ (or 'VLO') platforms and search engines). Even UK providers may be caught, where it has an entity based in the EU or has a 'substantial connection' with the EU (i.e. a significant number of users as a proportion of the EU population or by targeting its activities at one or more EU countries). Services such as Bing, Google Search, Facebook, Instagram, Snapchat, TikTok, YouTube, X/Twitter, AliExpress and LinkedIn already face exploratory investigations under the DSA. Basically, the European Commission wants to know how these businesses: 

• mitigate the risks of creating and spreading information using generative AI and risks to electoral processes; 
• block illegal content; 
• protect users' fundamental rights; 
• avoid promoting gender-based violence; 
• protect children; 
• protect users' mental well-being; 
• protect users' personal data; 
• protect consumers; and 
• avoid the infringement of copyright and other intellectual property rights.

How Do British Businesses Benefit From the DMA and DSA?

British businesses will not want to spend heavily to acquire and deal with customers via gatekeepers' services, only to see the gatekeepers take those customers on directly. That's where the DMA comes in. It should not matter that a foreign business is among those who suffer any violation, since that will also affect EU businesses and customers that the DMA is primarily designed to benefit. 

More widely, British businesses trading online the EU customers should also be reassured that the DSA regime is designed to ensure those customers are treated well and fairly in the intermediary environments. Otherwise, they risk losing both the channels through which they attract and deal with EU customers and/or the EU customers who are unwilling to engage with those channels. Equally, businesses will want to know that they are taking on genuine customers and dealing with reputable service providers online, rather than risking exposure to fraud and intellectual property rights infringement via their EU sales and marketing channels.

Either way, it's clear that Britain's service exporters are highly dependent on the EU trade bloc and its regulatory regime, regardless of Brexit.

Whether they can expect the same protection at home is another matter...

This Tory Gang Is A Repressive Regime, Exploiting Britain For Its Own Gain

The British government's recent attacks on public sector workers' pleas for fair pay and the right to strike have shocked only those who have not followed the plans of Boris Johnson and a cabal of Conservative Party members, donors and cronies...

Since early 2016, when Johnson and Gove hatched their Brexit plans at a dinner with the wealthy son of a Russian KGB officer, Britain's Conservative Party has been transformed into a vehicle for bending Britain to the will and benefit of a far right cabal under a false banner of 'liberty' and other lies. At stake is power and the ability to allocate vast amounts of public money to their plans, starving everyone else of wealth and power in the process. This is the very opposite of 'liberty' and 'democracy' and has most in common with Orban's regime in Hungary and Putin's regime in Russia. There is hope for ordinary Britons, just as far right experiments have been defeated for now in the US, Australia and Brazil. Yet ultra conservative forces continue to lurk even in those countries. 

The first step was to persuade the masses to decouple Britain from the world's largest trade bloc, not only the UK's biggest external market for goods, services, labour and capital, but also a source of trade rules and standards - many designed by Britain itself - to protect consumers and workers and ensure a level playing field among members of the bloc: all standing in the way of this Tory cabal and their plans. The inevitable blow to Britain's economy (while their hedge fund donors made billions) was key to weakening potential sources of resistance to their plans.

As soon as this gang had a public mandate for destruction, they were able to root out from their ranks anyone who stood in their way. The 2019 election saw the removal of all centrist Tory Members of Parliament who were not prepared to kow-tow to the Enterprise Research Group and a web of conservative 'stink' tanks. 

Once country and party were fully in their hands, Johnson and his gang were free to unlawfully award vast fortunes in contracts to cronies, break international asylum and trade laws, behave as they wished even in the grip of a pandemic while requiring others to follow their rules, threaten any source of resistance in the media; and begin their assault on workers rights (proposing laws only seen in Russia and Hungary), food and other product standards, financial constraints and other checks on greed and corruption, recklessly introducing legislation to rip-out any laws adopted from the EU by the end of 2023 without adequate assessment of the impact. 

That process is still playing out before our very eyes under the false flag of 'liberty' and libertarian ideals that are actually authoritarian in nature and designed to bend Britain's economy and people to the Tories' self-serving whims.

Make no mistake. Sunak and his crew are of the same stamp as Johnson and Gove (mostly the same people). And as Sunak's failure to rein in Johnson's own lucrative speaking tour while still an MP has perfectly demonstrated, they are all in government purely and simply for themselves.

Yet none of the alleged benefits of leaving the EU has ever surfaced. Only the downsides for everyone but the Tories and their donors and cronies. 

It's the biggest electoral fraud in Britain's history, and the most repressive regime this country has seen in modern times.

How Many British Prime Ministers Will Be Sacrificed On The Altar of Brexit?

Cameron, May, Johnson, Truss, Sunak... the list goes on. I give Sunak a month. As detailed again and again in these pages, Reality will keep reaping its way through politicians who think that Britain can grow, let alone thrive, without free movement of goods, services, capital and labour between itself and its neighbours - who just happen to have clubbed together in the world's largest trade bloc.

Cameron baulked at even attempting Brexit. May stupidly thought she could trigger the process yet fudge the result. Johnson lied about the consequences of a deal that he secretly planned to renegotiate. Truss tried to magic her way out of the vicious economic spiral in the full glare of the financial markets spotlight; while Sunak is so pathetic as to find himself skewered by the dog-whistle promise that Britain will refuse to admit any refugees.

What the next candidate will offer the few remaining Tory faithful is anyone's guess, but unless he or she decides to join the Single Market & Customs Union, it will be another short stay in Number 10.

Britain's Gaslit Future: So Bright You Gotta Wear Shades

The gaslighting is now so strong in Britain that you can't watch a government press conference without sunglasses. The last six weeks in plague-ridden lockdown have been particularly surreal. There's a horrible grinding sound as if whoever's really driving Britain is struggling to find reverse, while the CovidBrexidiot at the wheel claims that trade in goods is flowing as smoothly as public funds into his Tory cronies' pockets. Buried within the government's sycophantic media are tell-tale signs that ministers and officials never understood the trade barriers that EU membership suspended between Britain and its closest neighbours, let alone their own new rules; and none has read the withdrawal agreement, EU-UK trade deal or the mystical 'Northern Ireland Protocol'. We were even treated to the Parliamentary pantomime of Brexidiot Villiers urging Brexidiot Gove to 'renegotiate' a new protocol to replace the existing one. Fresh from misselling the benefits of the Japan trade deal, Brexidiot Truss has notified Britain's Pacific neighbours of the intention to join their trade pact rather than the world's largest only 21 miles away. Meanwhile, the Right Honourable Wackjob Reclining-Smug has regaled Parliament with claims that local fish are "happy to be British" and his favourite breakfast is "nanny's home made marmalade on toast".

But none of this is really new. A strong sense of denial and unjustified entitlement has powered British politics for well over a century. While most major countries embraced their relative positions in the world, Britain's political cult leaders and their followers drank constantly from a deep well of nostalgia-laced Kool Aid. Scorning the fact that phyrric victories in successive global conflicts had left their country dependent on both American money and a steadily growing European marketplace, they branded this twin dependence as Britain's 'Special Relationship' with the US and begrudging leadership of a grateful post-war Europe. 

Never mind the fact that Britain begged to join the EEC over French objections, then tried to cement its place by transforming the trade bloc into a steadily expanding European Union. Ignore 'big bang' when American financial institutions were encouraged to make London their route for raising and deploying foreign capital. 

The British political establishment consoled itself over such bitter compromises with reality by welcoming the embezzled funds of sundry despots and dictators, transforming a string of colonial-era island dependencies into tax havens and London itself into the money laundering capital of the world. Mayfair grew to entertain both US hedge fund managers and Putin's diaspora, united in their need for disruption and the investment opportunities that brings...

There is no better symbol of this constant struggle with reality than the rise of the mendacious Boris Johnson. It may have taken Trump's flash-in-the-pan for British populism to find its voice among the Tories' rabid Eurosceptics, but it took Johnson's peculiarly fraudulent outlook to spot the opportunity to lead them into the centre of government with perhaps the greatest confidence trick in British history.

Whether it's possible for politicians to continue defying the reality of Britain's decline is unclear. Certainly there is little by way of Parliamentary opposition, as their leader seems incapable of unifying his own party let alone pointing out the fundamental flaws in his country's trade plans.

But that gaslighting will definitely need to go up a notch... 

Brexidiot British Gove-ment Begs To Renegotiate Brexit After 33 Days

Well that didn't take long. Amidst the widely predicted damage that Brexit is inflicting on the British economy, Brexidiot Gove has written to his EU counterpart under the misleading title "Next Steps on the Northern Ireland Protocol" to list the many ways in which the British government would now like to renegotiate the terms of Brexit and future trade with the EU generally. Fearful of again running out of time, Gove has also requested a delay of "at least" two years in the erection of the barriers that he knew would arise with the end of Brexit transition, despite rejecting the option of a two year extension last June.

Never mind the fact that Brexit was touted by Brexidiots Johnson and Gove as a way to "Take Back Control" or Johnson's electoral commitment to "Get Brexit Done" with an "oven ready deal".

If those responsible for this fraudulent misadventure are not prosecuted for Misconduct in Public Office there seems little point in having the offence on the statute books.

Meanwhile, however, the visionless Labour 'leader' seems intent on placating the flag-waving nationalists who helped Britain into this mess. 

He and the Tories ignore the rest of us at their peril...

New Year's Resolution: Find The Opportunities In Idiocracy

Earth's future

Returning to these pages from 2020, I feel like a bewildered time traveler. Earth is gripped by climate change and a deadly pandemic. As the hospitals and morgues overflow, the outgoing US President attempts a coup and Britain destroys its own import/export markets, reducing free meals for children to bits of carrot... 

 

It's like the set up for a movie. I'm thinking Idiocracy 2: Birth. A kind of prequel to the first film, which leapt 500 years straight into the future without really explaining how we got there. How society really began to unravel to the point where people can barely speak anymore and don't even need to leave their armchairs to take a dump during Ow! My Balls on the Violence Channel. 

 

You may think I'm being negative here, but already I've come up with a movie idea, see?! 

 

Indeed, this chimes perfectly with my New Year's resolution: to only see the opportunities amidst all this carnage. Chill out. Enjoy the ride. Whatever happens. Take it easy.

Just do not read my Twitter account.

Mis-selling Brexit

The British Parliament has finally had the chance to scrutinise the new UK-Japan trade deal that has been trumpeted for so long by Brexidiot Truss. Unsurprisingly, two committees found that the difference between the new deal and the terms available to the UK under the EU-Japan deal are not as extensive as the Secretary of State for International Trade had claimed. An opposition MP found that the government's own figures show the UK will be worse off than under EU terms.

The House of Commons International Trade Committee, did find some extra items on digital services and data (precedent-setting for future agreements) and financial services (including a ban on the need to store financial data in the host country).

The House of Lords International Agreements Sub-Committee pointed out that "exaggerating the gains ... courts unjustified scepticism about what is a respectable ... agreement". 

UK-Japan deal also depends on a trade agreement between the UK and the EU because, for example, "to secure existing trilateral trade flows between the EU, UK and Japan, the UK and EU would need to extend cumulation to Japan through their own trade agreement". 

The Committees want more effective scrutiny of future free trade agreements that are not based on existing EU arrangements, which are likely to be more controversial. 

Meanwhile, Emily Thornberry revealed the results of Opposition efforts to get to the bottom of the economic value of the UK-Japan deal relative to the UK's terms under the EU- Japan deal:

Yesterday in the House, I confronted Liz Truss with her own Department’s report on the question she’s repeatedly refused to answer: what’s the difference, in pounds and pence, between her Japan deal and the EU-Japan deal it replaces? She didn’t look happy. pic.twitter.com/PKuiYYlNnI

— Emily Thornberry (@EmilyThornberry) November 26, 2020

 

A European View of Brexit: Three Sources of Opportunities

Ironically, I was asked to give a European view of Brexit for an online conference this morning. I say, ironically, because it was in my role as an Irish lawyer for an Irish law firm, yet speaking from London as someone who's also qualified as an English solicitor and who left Sydney in 1994 as a 29 year old barrister. I guess that makes me one of Theresa May’s ‘citizens of nowhere’. At any rate, here's a summary of my view - which I tried to couch in terms of opportunities from a European standpoint.

How to view Brexit

I see Brexit as a set of international sanctions self-imposed by voters for emotional reasons - whether perceived 'lack of sovereignty', feeling 'left behind by globalisation', xenophobia or nostalgia. The hard facts never mattered. Trading rights to fish in UK waters to EU countries may have 'sent a shudder' through the House of Commons from a symbolic, nationalistic standpoint but fishing is the UK's smallest industry, employing 24,000 people and exporting 80% of its catch to the EU to help feed 400m people, as opposed to the UK's 65m.

And the hard reality is that the UK helped build the EU trade bloc, including advocating its expansion to 28 members; and contributing significantly to many of its rules, like EU financial services regulation and, ironically, anti-money laundering regulation. So I have little sympathy with the idea that Britain could legitimately expect the EU suddenly to change how it does deals with third countries just because Britain used to be a member state.

Opportunities?

Brexit may be a mess of the UK's own making, but every mess provides an opportunity for someone to clean up.

Looking for opportunities in this context is a bit like the final scene in "The Life of Brian". A lot of terrible things happen in that scene, including mass-suicide out of 'solidarity' with the poor unfortunates being crucified. But it's important to remember that the scene ends with everyone singing “Always look on the bright side of life”.  

To continue the idea that Brexit is a set of self-imposed sanctions, the opportunities really boil down to 'sanction-busting' – finding workarounds for the many problems Brexit creates. Aside from the potential for speculators and other 'disaster capitalists' to make money, there are three sources for these opportunities:

Any form of Brexit means ‘no deal’ for services: 

The end of Brexit transition period in December means the end of free movement of services from the UK into the EU (and the free movement of the labour needed to deliver them), as well as the end of mutual recognition of professional qualifications, licences and various types of certificates (e.g. veterinary, eIDAS identity certificates and so on).

That's a significant problem because services account for 80% of the UK economy, 80% of UK jobs and a third of UK exports, 40% of which go to EEA countries. 

This means UK firms need to set up EEA hubs, which will bring know-how, jobs and tax revenues to their new home countries. Ireland has a great opportunity here, being the only principally English speaking, common law country left in the EEA with a visa-free Common Travel Area for British and Irish workers. That's why I got my own practising certificate in Ireland and added a consultancy with an Irish law firm, since my UK practising certificate and legal qualifications won't be recognised in the EU after Brexit transition ends.

The perceived mishandling of Covid19 by the UK government compared to others (not to mention a trend toward xenophobic policy measures and right wing culture) might also feed into people’s sense of where is best to live, as could a trend toward remote-working as opposed to treating cities like London as essential hubs.

Britain is a consultant/client state:

Successive British governments have been relaxed about the sale of British businesses to foreign buyers, to the point where there aren’t really many major British-owned businesses anymore, and there seem likely be even fewer in future. 

In fact, Britain has evolved not only into an 80% service economy but also a consultant state - a sort of UK Consulting PLC. It majors in financial services, international dispute resolution, artificial intelligence, computing, construction, engineering and lots of other services (not to mention tax avoidance and money laundering) without actually owning the factories, output, buildings or in many cases even the land on which they're built. 

At the same time the British government apparently sees the job of serving its own citizens as something to be outsourced to private service providers. So the government operates like a procurement platform, paying service providers vast sums of tax money to deliver public services in remarkably autonomous fashion, while extracting taxes from the service providers' public sector income (as a kind of referral commission), as well as the taxes on the revenue from UK Consulting PLC. 

Needless to say, there are all sorts of opportunities for EU/UK service providers to import and export services using local UK/EU entities and locally qualified personnel, subject to dual qualifications and nationality/visas for those who need to move between.

Friction at the borders

There will be problems and delays at the UK borders, regardless of any deal or no deal. So Ireland, for example, is busy figuring out how to get its goods in and out by increased ferry services to and from the EU, and is planning how to open up markets beyond the UK. 

On both sides of the borders, customers who import from the EU into the UK or vice versa want to avoid 'customs risk'. That means the exporting suppliers must have a local entity/office in the EU/UK that takes on the responsibility and the liability for ensuring goods are delivered to importers. 

In each case, both European and British businesses can assist each other in embracing these challenges as opportunities, even if the ultimate result is a transfer of British business activity to the EU and a British economy that is smaller and produces less than if Britain had remained a member of the trade bloc.

You see, I told you there'd be opportunities!

 

Brexit Threat to Consumer Protection For EU Purchases

After years of Brexit delay, suddenly every day brings news of another important detail missed. This one hits consumers just as directly as delays to goods at the border, and depends on the British government understanding the problem and agreeing a solution within the next 119 days...

Currently, if you have a problem with something you bought in EU country, Iceland or Norway you can get free advice from the UK European Consumer Centre. They'll explain your rights as a consumer, help you settle the dispute or put you in touch with someone else who can help.

In May 2020, for example, the centre saw a surge in consumer queries over Ryanair's mass cancellation of flights, and it received 7,067 queries during the COVID-19 lockdown from 23 March to mid-August. Hundreds of thousands of UK residents have been helped during the past 13 years.

The centre is the only service of its type available to UK consumers. It employs 11 specialist staff based at the Chartered Trading Standards Institute in Basildon, Essex, and is jointly funded by the UK and EU as part of a wider ECC network in the countries it covers.

Andy Allen, Service Director at the UK ECC, says that if an agreement is not reached "...this is not a tap that can be turned back on again at a moment's notice – these are specialist jobs. The UK ECC could face closure, the 11 staff could lose their livelihoods and thousands of UK consumers would have no-one to help them in their disputes with traders in the EU."

Let's hope negotiators can find a way to maintain this critical service...

If Cummings Goes, The Lies Expose

Source: BoingBoing.net

You're wondering why someone in Dum Cummings' position would be presented to Britain in the garden of 10 Downing Street to gaslight your view of his Durham misadventure. And why minister after minister insists that this man must be allowed to break the rules but you must not. 

It's because Boris Johnson and his merry band of CovidBrexidiots do not share your reality. They live in a tiny model bus that Johnson made out of lies (see clip below). To be allowed to stay in Johnson's bus, the CovidBrexidiots must keep lying. This strengthens the bus, which would otherwise be crushed by Reality, exposing all the lies. 

Dominic Cummings supplies the lies, and targets them at selected believers through a network of social media accounts. Without Cummings the CovidBrexidiots would have no lies, their little model bus would be crushed and all the lies would come out.

Just As Blair Never Escaped Iraq, Johnson Will Never Escape Brexit Or COVID19

There's a lot of speculation about whether Boris Johnson can steady his government's COVID19 plague ship in time to weather the Brexit storm. It seems unlikely, but who knows? What is certain is that the stigma of both disasters will stick to Johnson forever, in the same way the second Gulf War dogs Tony Bliar Blair to this day...

In 1997, Blair found a way to unite Britain by promising a lot: Change, an end to Thatcherism, a new personal empowerment, an "end to boom-and-bust"... you name it. The hype inspired hope on a grand scale, and for his first term it seemed to hold. He was re-elected easily in 2001. Successful peace-keeping efforts in the late 90's led to early wins in Afghanistan after 9/11.

Then Blair succumbed to a Messiah Complex and hope turned to disillusionment. In 2003, he sealed his ultimate fate by ignoring Britain's largest ever mass demonstration and 139 of his own MPs in favour of 10 Downing Street's own "intelligence" to commit Britain to the invasion of Iraq. Oh, sure, Blair also systematically ignored the House of Commons and dedicated himself to dealing with the public directly through media manipulation and spin. He tolerated the Mandelson scandals and the dysfunctional relationship with Gordon Brown, allowing gross over-spending in boom times that ultimately left Britain grimly exposed to the financial crisis. But Blair still won the 2005 election, and enjoyed 2 more years as PM before resigning in favour of the hapless Brown. Yet the invasion of Iraq still hung round his neck:

"In his [May 2007 resignation speech]... Mr Blair dealt directly with Iraq, many people's perception as his ultimate legacy, saying: "The blowback since ... has been fierce, unrelenting and costly."

And even after the intervening financial crisis and the fact that RBS remains publicly owned to this day, Blair's destiny is to be remembered for his role in the invasion of Iraq - as borne out by the reactions that greeted the Chilcot Report in 2016, his interventions during the Brexit debate and the scorn within the Labour Party for his advice in more recent times.

“It is not in the stars to hold our destiny but in ourselves.” 

William Shakespeare

In similar fashion to Blair's Iraq adventure, Boris Johnson sealed his own fate when he threw his political weight behind the infamously dishonest Leave campaign in 2016 (cunningly preferring his own article in favour of leaving to his own article in favour of remaining).

This exemplified the stunning degree of misjudgement for which Johnson has long been renowned. 

The referendum itself had been mired in controversy even before Cameron promised it as a bribe to right wing Tories to garner their support for his own re-election campaign in 2015. That intensified when he unexpectedly won a Tory majority and was forced by his own party to hold the EU vote. A statesman would have left the matter to the populace and balanced their 'advice' with rational expertise, leaving Britain's unique and beneficial international trade terms in tact. Yet, bizarrely, Cameron committed to implementing the result of the advisory referendum, then lashed himself to the mast, albeit by leading the campaign for the only sustainable outcome. He lost no time in resigning as soon as it was over, and Theresa May's dreadful, already forgotten premiership demonstrated why. The lunatics had taken over the asylum. 

Chief among the lunatics was Johnson, who lurked in the wings throughout the May debacle because his shamelessly opportunistic, narcissistic decision to lead the Leave vote had shackled him to Brexit for the rest of his life. He'd made sure that securing Brexit was his only chance of being Prime Minister, and it remained Brexit or bust for him - no matter that it's Brexit and bust for Britain. Johnson simply didn't - and doesn't - care. It's all about him and his Brexit. He's taken Blair's lack of respect for Parliament to literally unconstitutional lengths. He's ignored bigger demonstrations than those against the Iraq war. He prefers outright lies to mere spin or media manipulation. He ignores detail and prefers waxing lyrical with obtuse references to ancient myths, always myths....

Being remembered for the myth of Brexit is Johnson's destiny.

Then along came COVID19...

Brexit reality has been slow to dawn, mainly because it involves simply not doing stuff.  We've seen the steady departure of EU citizens, headquarters of EU organisations, manufacturing capacity and jobs - all signs of air leaking out of the economy. Meanwhile, essential investment has withered, compared to investment in the other "G7" nations, and successive Tory governments have under-invested in the capability of the British state to actually do the tedious things that Brexit demands, like setting up customs checks and checkpoints, creating the new import/export forms, issuing guidance to businesses and so on. Yet none of that chaos will really hit until the Brexit transition period expires - currently still on schedule for 31 December 2020...

Instead, it's fallen to the COVID19 pandemic to reveal how badly the Brexidiot Tories have under-invested in the British state more generally, and how poorly equipped Johnson and his cronies are to manage Britain's return to phyiscal and economic health. No sooner had the ink dried on the Withdrawal Agreement and Johnson's weird victory speech had echoed through the Old Naval College at Greenwhich than the virus began relentlessly punching him and his Brexidiot crew in the face, remorselessly exposing their lies, misinformation and gaslighting on their state of preparation and ability to respond.  BoJo's Brexit Britain was revealed to be unprepared, ill-equipped, slow to respond, unable to organise delivery of the right protective equipment to staff who need it, unable to arrange testing on the necessary scale and is now second to the United States in the number of COVID19 deaths.

Throughout this lastest crisis, Johnson himself has largely disappeared. Yet amidst his 2 week personal holiday in February and 4 weeks off with COVID19 in April, Johnson's Brexit crew insisted they were working toward the end of transition on 31 December 2020, leaving the EU's chief negotiator to reveal on April 24th that, in fact, the UK "has failed to engage substantially" in the Brexit trade talks at all.

There's no escaping that Brexit destiny, even while he's chiselling "COVID19" onto his tombstone.

Not that Johnson even really cares.

Are We Clear On COVID 19, Boris?

It's difficult to believe that Boris Johnson's first press conference on the COVID 19 pandemic occurred only two weeks ago, on 16 March 2020. Scandalous, in fact, given the need for the government to inspire trust and confidence in its handling of a situation that was already 10 weeks old, so that we all follow public health instructions. Worse, however, is that these briefings are largely used as Johnson's opportunity to lie and misinform. Even Alistair Campbell, the original Spinmeister, finally snapped and provided 20 top-tips for properly keeping the nation informed - advice that's been reported so widely and with such approval that nobody can be in any doubt that Johnson is determined not to be honest at all...

A key feature of this daily 'dog and pony show' is for Johnson, or another Brexidiot minister standing-in, to be flanked by two human shields: either another Brexidiot minister or a senior civil servant to his right; and a senior civil servant to his left. 

When in the middle himself, Johnson largely plays the role of panel chairman, ostentatiously ticking some list of journalists or media outlets, scribbling a note and assigning each question to one of his shields. Though occasionally he fails to resist the temptation to answer with his own waffle or muddle the issue that he's handing off. 

The questions are invited in twos and threes. This also helps shift attention to the 'business' of who will answer each question, rather than the meaning and importance of each question itself. Amidst the confusion it's impracticable for anyone to point out that a question wasn't answered clearly, or at all. 

Questions on the politics get smothered in nonsense or ignored in the usual way, but inevitably it oozes out that a lie has been told or a horrendous error of judgement was made and covered up.

Technical questions - on 'models', the 'science' or health - go to the civil servants, often with a muddle of words from Johnson which the poor unfortunate technocrat has to clear up before getting a chance to answer the actual question.

I pity the civil servants. Understandably, they were not chosen for their jobs based on either their ability to handle a national press conference accompanied by a mendacious narcissist, or to speak in sentences and language that a national audience with a reading age of 11 could understand. So putting them on display like this is Johnson's idea of a practical joke. It would be amusing if this were a televsion show, as one day it might be (Yes Minister with a daily press conference). But now, not so much. 

My personal favourite is the current Deputy Chief Medical Officer for England, and I leave you with perhaps the longest single sentence to date, at nearly two full minutes, on how long the current 'suppression measures' might be in place. This is the sort of question that should've been averted by providing the information succintly in the first place, but the poor DCMO is left to deal with it. Bless her, she deserves a medal for fronting BoJo's despicable regime in a time of great crisis. In the meantime, a nation waits patiently for genuinely informative briefings from the British government...

The Lyin' King Must Go

Not content with misleading Britain into economic hell, Boris Johnson has now succeeded in misleading great swathes of the British public to their ultimate doom. Yesterday, after spending weeks claiming that the UK is "well prepared" to deal with the COVID 19 strain of coronavirus, his government finally admitted that the UK is, you guessed it... not well prepared. In fact, it desperately needs extra ventilators and staff to care for the critically ill among the 7.9 million who may need to be hospitalised. So desperately are ventilators required, that the government will pay "any price" for them, and even wants manufacturers of diggers and other heavy equipment to have a go at making ventilators instead. So much for Brexit Britain's export hopes. That's enough lies now. Any basis for trusting this lot has disappeared - and trust is absolutely critical if the public is to follow government advice. It really is time for Johnson and his Brexiteers to take a well earned rest from government.

Aside from the catalogue of lies before Christmas, consider the following timeline on coronavirus:

In 2016, the NHS ran a pandemic drill called "Exercise Cygnus" after which the Chief Medical Officer warned that the UK faced "inadequate ventilation". Here's the NHS England influenza pandemic response plan for 2017, which does not mention of ventilator/ventilation but refers to 'stockpiles' of peronal protective equipment and other 'measures'.

At the end of December and on 6 and 9 January 2020, warnings were issued of a 'flu-like outbreak' in China by Canadian and US monitoring systems and the World Health Organisation.

On Thursday 23 January 2020, the British Health Secretary, Matt "Mattymatics" Hancock insisted the NHS was "well prepared" for any outbreak of coronavirus in the UK, and told Parliament that the UK was "well equipped" to deal with any cases.

On 26 January 2020, Labour's shadow health secretary warned the government that "The NHS is currently under immense strain this winter with staff already working flat out and hospitals overcrowded."

On 31 January 2020, the lying continued:

Authorities have said the NHS is ‘extremely well-prepared’ for cases of the Wuhan novel coronavirus.

Chief Medical Officer for England Professor Chris Whitty said: ‘We have been preparing for UK cases of novel coronavirus and we have robust infection control measures in place to respond immediately.

On the same day, a British official attended EU health security meeting to discuss buying ventilators and protective equipment [updated 1.04.20].

On 3 February 2020, Hancock said again, "Our world-class NHS is well prepared and we are doing everything we can to protect the public."

That same day, Johnson gave a speech at Greenwich promoting Brexit.

And in that context, we are starting to hear some bizarre autarkic rhetoric, when barriers are going up, and when there is a risk that new diseases such as coronavirus will trigger a panic and a desire for market segregation that go beyond what is medically rational to the point of doing real and unnecessary economic damage, then at that moment humanity needs some government somewhere that is willing at least to make the case powerfully for freedom of exchange, some country ready to take off its Clark Kent spectacles and leap into the phone booth and emerge with its cloak flowing as the supercharged champion, of the right of the populations of the earth to buy and sell freely among each other.

On 4 February 2020, Britain was again represented at an EU health security meeting where procuring kit was discussed [updated 1.04.20].

On 11 and 12 February 2020, the World Health Organisation hosted a summit of 400 international to coordinate a global response to COVID 19, at which the Director General said:

As of 6am Geneva time this morning, there were 42,708 confirmed cases reported in China, and tragically we have now surpassed 1000 deaths - 1017 people in China have lost their lives to this virus. Most of the cases and most of the deaths are in Hubei province, Wuhan.

Outside China, there are 393 cases in 24 countries, and 1 death.

Johnson was then missing for 12 days in February, returning on 26 February, when Hancock told Parliament:

“We are taking all necessary measures to minimise the risk to the public... we are still in the phase of the plan which is contain – where we aim to contain the virus, both abroad and here at home, to prevent it becoming a pandemic whilst of course ensuring plans are in place should that happen.”

On 29 February 2020, NHS doctors were warning that the government has "no idea" on coronavirus.

On 2 March 2020, Britain was again represented at an EU health security meeting where procuring kit was discussed [updated 1.04.20]. 

On 3 March 2020, a survey of 1,618 NHS doctors found that 99% "were not in agreement with Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s assurances that the health service could cope with a major coronavirus outbreak in the UK".

On 6 March 2020, Johnson said, "We are ensuring the country is prepared for the current outbreak, guided by the science at every stage."

On 12 March 2020, the WHO announced that COVID 19 could formally be described as a "pandemic", with 20,000 confirmed cases and almost 1000 deaths in Europe. The WHO's director for the region said:

More and more countries are now experiencing clusters of cases or community transmission. We expect that in the days and weeks ahead, the number of cases and the number of deaths will continue to rise rapidly, and we must escalate our response in such a way as to take pre-emptive action wherever possible. Such actions may help to delay the pandemic, giving health-care systems time to prepare and assimilate the impact.

On 12 March 2020, Johnson began to change tune, saying, "unfortunately, more families are going to lose loved ones before their time."

On 13 March 2020, Britain was again represented at an EU health security meeting where procuring kit was discussed [updated 1.04.20].

On 15 March 2020 - over seven weeks after assuring the public that the NHS is "well prepared" - Hancock "admitted to the UK being unprepared for the toll this pandemic will take. Particularly he spoke of a shortage of ventilators and the trained staff needed to operate them."

On 16 March 2020, Johnson also began begging for ventilators, with the reality being:

"Ventilators are vital as medical experts estimate that between 10% and 20% of those who succumb to the virus will need critical care. Many of those will need help breathing.

Although firms stand ready and able to produce more ventilators, a lack of clarity on design specifications and component sourcing mean that production remains many weeks away."

Updated: 21.04.20

On 19 March 2020, the European Commission announced a bid to stockpile ventilators and protective equipment. That same day, Hancock stated on BBC Question Time that the UK was participating in the EU procurement bid. On 24 March, the Commission announced the protective equipment would be available in two weeks.

But, on 26 March 2020, Johnson announced that the UK would not participate in the EU procurement bid because he had decided Brexit Britain should get its own ventilators... presumably unaware of Hancock's commitment to participate on 19 March. Within hours he tried to claim instead that the UK had not received the 'email' in time to participate (despite a British official attending four EU health security meetings where procurement was being planned).

Ironically, Johnson himself began showing symptoms of having caught COVID19 on 27 March, and found himself in hospital on 5 April 2020 and intensive care on the 6th. He left hospital on 12 April to rest at Chartwell House for 2 weeks...

Meanwhile, on 21 April 2020, Sir Simon McDonald, chief civil servant in the Foreign Office confirms to a Foreign Affairs Select Committee that the UK not participating in the EU procurement exercise was "a political decision". "Ministers were briefed on what was available, what was on offer by the mission in Brussels and the decision is known." Yet the same day, Hancock tells the daily press briefing that he decided the UK was in the EU procurement scheme and it remains in, but the scheme has not yet delivered...

All this from someone who keeps promising to "do whatever it takes".

How many more such phrases must be rendered meaningless by this snake oil salesman?

Time to run these con men out of office.

Beyond The Brink: The Brinkmanship Is Over For #BrexitBoris And His Merry Band Of Brexidiots

Source: Byline Times

Boris Johnson has always known that leaving the EU is not in the UK's interests. Now he must live with it - and each of us must take our own path out of this mess.

Like spoilt kids, Johnson and his Brexidiot cronies want Little England to have the benefits of EU membership without the obligations. 

Their only weapon has been brinkmanship - threats of a referendum, threats of invoking Article 50, threats of leaving without a withdrawal agreement, and now threats of trading with no free trade deal. 

But the EU27 have called Britain's bluff every single time, and now Britain is beyond the brink. 

All that is left is endless whingeing about how tedious it is to be a 'third country' and the negotiation of 600 international trade agreements. 

There is no half-way house. 

This is crippling for services, in particular. The City can push for 'equivalence' instead of passporting for financial services, but knows that equivalence can end quickly (ask the Swiss). Everyone else is stuck with a mish mash of different rules, including inconsistent recognition of qualifications and some weird visa restrictions for business travellers. Why else would the EU have simplified it all with just 'four freedoms of movement' for goods, services, capital and labour? What else would tempt others to join the trade club?

So people and businesses must simply adapt to the UK's new status.  If you want to export anything to the EEA, then relocate the relevant operations to an EU27 member state, get qualified there (as I did in 2018) - whatever it takes.

The time for trusting the UK government to look after your interests is over.

You're on your own.

How To Enjoy Boris Johnson's Amazing* Brexit ShitShow™ - Season 5

Boris Biosuit - flameproof for winters in Oz or Brazil

Peering through the smoke billowing out of Scotty Morrison's Amazing* Coalfired CookOut™ I can dimly make out the shape and outline of someone or something that should make 2020 a truly fabulous year for the little Englander. But what about the rest of you? Here are my top tips, in no particular order...

Lock the doors and only deal with private couriers

The downside to travelling from all over Britain to participate in million-people marches is that Duminic Cummings knows what you look like and where you live. Moving around outside your house is ill-advised. Dim Martin controls the high streets through his network of pubs, and soon your postman will be replaced by a robot distributing IEDs manufactured by Britain First.

Robot delivering an IED made by Britain First

So make the most of house arrest by adopting industrial security measures and, say, redecorating the bedroom like your favourite hotel suite. Get sand and a plastic coconut palm for the living room. Have family members choose a different name, accent and style of beachwear each week to simulate your desired foreign resort experience.

And remember, use only private couriers to receive deliveries that have been specifically ordered by you personally, dig a deep trench just outside the front door and never accept a delivery for the nice neighbour(s). Those times are over.

Hedge Rising Food Costs by Speculating On All Black Tickets

Kiwi sheep are agents of the NZRU

The ride is over for farmers, particularly those who breed sheep. Once the British sheep have all been burnt or buried, agricultural subsidies will only go to landlords developing caravan parks for Tory voters. This will also be great news for Kiwi shepherds, who will dominate the British lamb market. All New Zealand sheep are secret agents of the New Zealand Rugby Union, so you can easily hedge your exposure to rising food costs by pre-purchasing tickets to All Black matches and flogging them on secondary ticketing sites or agreeing profit-share deals with local touts.

Commit to, Say, Building a Zip-line From Dover To France

Last mile of Dover to Paris Zip Line

As I've explained before, the key to success, wealth and happiness in this neo-post-truth world lies not in a hard day's work for a fair day's pay. No. In 2020, you will only be able to finance your house-bound fantasies by leveraging the 'bandwagon' and 'snowball' effects. To do this you must concoct a hugely ambitious, unique, deceptively simple, vaguely plausible scheme that is not actually achievable or demonstrable but is nevertheless the kind of thing in which your victims investors can have faith.  Boris Johnson himself has succeeded with commitments to an airport in the middle of the Thames, a 'garden bridge' in London, Brexit (of course) and, most recently, a bridge from Scotland to Northern Ireland - or vice versa, depending on your point of view - whereas the best part about a zip-line from the UK to France is that it's one-way.

* causing great surprise or wonder; astonishing.

The Conspiracy Theory Of Conspiracy Theories

I'm fascinated by conspiracy theories, and just happened across the Daddy. Corey Doctorow, the entertaining science fiction writer, believes he's found the source of them all:

"... [conspiracy theories] aren’t attributable to ideology or mind-control rays... at root, they are a disagreement about how we know whether something is true or not. When we argue about the flat Earth, we’re not just debating the shape of our planet: We’re debating the method by which we can know its shape....40 years of rising inequality and industry consolidation have turned our truth-seeking exercises into auctions, in which lawmakers, regulators and administrators are beholden to a small cohort of increasingly wealthy people who hold their financial and career futures in their hands. Industry consolidation makes it startlingly cheap to buy the truth: Once an industry consists of a handful of players, it’s easy for everyone to agree on the play, and the only people qualified to be referees are drawn from the companies’ own executive ranks, whence they will return after their spin in governance’s revolving door."

Not only is this thesis merely political hogwash designed to justify a call to break up certain industry oligopolies, but it also serves to highlight how the human brain works to make conspiracies attractive in the first place (as explored by Nobel prize-winner Daniel Kahneman and Nicholas Taleb, often mentioned here). 

The central problem is 'overconfidence' - the belief that our existence is somehow 'controlled' rather than random (also at the root of creationism vs natural selection, for example).

I mean, just imagine if all the data that every human perceives really were "bought" or curated by "a handful of players" - let alone after only 40 years of trying...

A moment's thought, let alone a cursory read of James Gleick's excellent history of humanity's attempt to master information reveals this would not be possible. And many different conspiracy theories abound in the many different communities around the planet.

Even complaints about deliberate misinformation causing the outcome of specific votes, like Brexit, are overdone. As Taleb points out, such outcomes may be classified as Black Swans - surprise events that we try to rationalise by hindsight. Lies and misinformation might be part of the swirl surrounding Brexit, yet may really only correlate with the result without being causative - they could be just as symptomatic of a deeper malaise as the result of the vote itself. 

That's not to say lies and electoral violations should be overlooked or go unpunished - or that we should not try to rectify obvious economic mistakes or life-threatening misconceptions like the "Anti-Vax" movement. But ultimate 'control' just isn't an option. We can only minimise our exposure to the downside, and maximise our exposure to the upside, of the major events that shape our history.

Applying that to Doctorow's theory: the break of up of industry oligopolies may be worthwhile for certain reasons, but that process will not somehow restore human control over the 'truth' - any more than it will alter human psychology.

Why Suggest A Bridge Between Scotland and Ireland?

Popularity develops through the snowball effect and the bandwagon effect. Some things or people are popular because they're useful, solve a real problem or are widely appreciated for some intrinsic quality: the wheel, a rock song/group, the telephone...  But what if you have nothing genuine to offer? How do you create your own snowball and bandwagon effects out of thin air? 

You do what every snake oil salesman in the Wild West did, what Bernie Madoff did, what every religious sect leader has done, what reality TV show producers do - and what the likes of Farage, Johnson and Gove have done...

You create or 'boost' something hugely ambitious, unique, deceptively simple, vaguely plausible but not actually 'real' in the sense of being achievable or demonstrable. Something in which your victims can only have faith.

Committing to solve a really big, actual problem is out of the question. Firstly, it's really hard and will take a long time, because it involves changing actual behaviour and fighting inertia - the resistance to change. Secondly, it won't make you exclusively popular because you'll likely be competing with lots of others trying to solve the same problem. You won't stand out in the crowd. You won't capture peoples' attention.

And real problems won't capture your followers' imagination or their faith.

To make your victims cling to their belief for a long time, you also need a goal that’s really big and ambitious - because, if they go for it, a big project will commits lots of people, money and resources that can't easily be redeployed.

And if the goal isn't 'real' it can never quite be achieved or delivered or found (think the Holy Grail): the quest is never-ending. Once you’ve got your popularity snowballing it's just about the journey, not the destination. Nobody wants to stop believing (and spending). Negotiating trade deals is an endless process - the job of leaving the EU successfully will literally never be "done". There's no easy way to leave the cult. Inertia is now on your side!

Here are some examples of projects that were or are hugely ambitious, deceptively simple, vaguely plausible but not actually achieved or achievable that seem to have been conjured up to boost someone's popularity... You'll see that Johnson's proposal for a bridge between Scotland and Ireland fits right in - get that feasibility study started!

• an airport in the middle of the Thames;

• long term stock market returns of 11% (not the widely accepted 8%);

•  Farage's decades long quest for Britain to leave the EU;

• the 'Leave' campaigns, as backed by Johnson/Gove and Farage/Banks;

• the garden bridge;

• donate X% of your income for eternal salvation;

• build a bridge between Scotland and Ireland. 

And finally, a word from the perpetrator of the biggest fraud of all time... (or is it?)...