With Brexit madness in full flow the case for a hard border with Scotland by 2023 is also gathering momentum. Here's why...
Even amidst the corruption and lies in the Leave campaigns during the EU referendum of 2016, Scots still voted overwhelmingly in favour of Remain 62% to 38%.
If Brexit proceeds, the UK government believes the British economy will under-perform by about £15bn a year in terms of government tax receipts, meaning it will need to borrow more and more to maintain current spending. Even if you believe in unicorns , it's therefore likely that extreme pressure on public spending across the UK will mean declining public services and increasing misery for many.
Against this backdrop, the economic concerns during the first Scottish independence referendum seem less troubling. After all, Scotland (population 5.4m) is larger than 7 EU member states and even if it's economy is more precarious than other small EU members, it might prefer the protection of the world's largest trade bloc to a flat-lining UK. This could also mean that qualms about accepting the Euro would fall away.
At any rate, Scotland now intends to hold a second independence referendum by 2021. As Brexit impact and uncertainty worsens, it is likely that bruised Scots will be more likely to vote for both independence from the UK and for membership of the EU. The original margin against independence of 55:45 could therefore easily reverse.
Just as the UK is unlikely to be able to avoid physical checks at its border with Ireland, the remainder of the UK would be unable to avoid physical checks at its border with Scotland. But, perhaps more crucially, Scottish politicians seem unanimous in saying that Northern Ireland must not be placed in a better trade position with the EU than Scotland - which would be the case if the 'backstop' were to kick in.
It's also been suggested that under a 'semi-Brexit' England & Wales might benefit from this type of scenario in their ability to agree trade terms with the EU, rather like the Isle of Man.
Of course, the sensible option is to revoke the Article 50 notice and stop all this nonsense entirely, but British politicians are too scared of the fascists for that...
