EU Acts To Cut Fees For Cross-Border Payments In Non-Eurozone Member States

The pesky EU is at it again, this time trying to level the playing field for EU consumers and businesses by putting an end to the high cost of cross-border payments in currencies of Member States outside the Eurozone. Only Sweden took up the option to align the fees charged for those cross-border payments in Swedish krona with fees for krona payments within Sweden. Other non-Euro area countries, like the UK, did not oblige their banks to invest in the systems to do this. So, the European Commission is proposing a regulation to force banks in those Member States to cut their fees.

I've experienced the problems personally, as would anyone doing business across borders, travelling for business or pleasure, or shopping internationally online.

Business payments

Expecting the worst from Brexit (but hoping the whole fiasco will end with the UK remaining in the EU), I've added an Irish side to my business. That means getting paid in Euros and changing into GBP (if the funds are needed in the UK at all). To receive international payments to my GBP business bank account, my bank says I need an extra current account on its commercial banking platform (which I won't be able to see through the online access to my normal business current account). For that extra account, I'll have to pay £20 a month, plus their charge for converting each payment, plus their margin on the foreign exchange rate.

Compare that to £0 for receiving a UK payment in GBP to my existing, fee-free UK current account!

A study by Deloitte revealed other examples that punish small and medium sized businesses, as well as consumers.  It costs €24 to send €500 from Bulgaria to Finland, for instance, but sending €500 from Finland to France is like any normal payment within Finland or France - which is what the Commission wants to see in the non-Euro area.

Travelling or shopping

On a more personal level, you'll also be familiar with the tedious additional "choice" that everyone is forced to make when the currency of their payment card is different to the local currency. It's not so intrusive online, but a real pain for both you and the person serving you in a crowded shop, bar or restaurant. You have to be asked, or indicate on the card terminal whether you want (a) the "dynamic currency conversion" option, to pay in the currency of your card (at an unspecified rate that may include both margin for the local bank service provider and 'spread' for the retailer); or (b) to pay in the local currency, taking the risk that the conversion rate via the card scheme and your own bank's foreign transaction charge (if any) that you eventually see on your card statement will mean you're at least no worse off than whatever the local conversion rate was.

In this case, the Commission is proposing a short term cap on conversion costs, then a new model that shows you the actual cost of those options before you choose one.

After all, it's just data, folks! 

Cost Savings

The Commission found that extending the new rule from Euro transactions in the Eurozone to non-Eurozone Member States will save the affected customers €900m a year. That's because (a) the banks already have access to the modern system required, (b) at least 60% of cross-border transactions in the non-Eurozone Member States occur in Euros and (c) the cost of domestic transactions in those states is already low and couldn't be raised to subsidise the savings on the cross-border Euro transactions under competition rules.

It's worth noting that Eurozone banks did not raise fees when the first controls were imposed on cross-border payments in Euros - and in fact charges steadily decreased. Nor did Swedish service providers suffer when Sweden opted to extend the scheme to the krona.

Personally, I'm going to ignore the bank for my Euro payments until it gets its house in order - which might be never anyway. Even if the Euro/GBP conversion charge drops to zero, I'm sure it will still oblige me to take the commercial account on the more expensive platform and pay £20 a month for the privilege. It will argue that the move to a new current account does not relate to any single payment transaction or conversion, even though that's the only purpose I'd be taking the extra account.

No, what I'm going to do instead is open an account with one of the new foreign currency providers, so that a law firm can pay the provider in Euros, and the provider will pay me in GBP for a small, flat fee. 

FinTech wins again!

Ah, but Brexit...

Of course, all bets are off if the UK leaves the EU and decides to diverge from the EU trade rules relating to financial services.

In that case, banks - like telecoms companies who hate the EU's limit on roaming charges - will heave a sigh of relief.

Big business doesn't refer to the UK as "Treasure Island" for nothing!

Better Services For SMEs: Follow The Data

I was at a 'parliamentary roundtable' on Tuesday on the perennial topic of small business banking reform. A more official report will be forthcoming, but I thought I'd record a few thoughts in the meantime (on a Chatham House basis). 

It still seems to surprise some people that small businesses represent 95% of the UK's 5.4m businesses - 75% of which are sole traders - and that they account for 60% of private employment, most new jobs and about half the UK's turnover. So-called 'Big Business' is just the tip of the iceberg, since only they have the marketing and lobbying resources to be seen above the waves. As a result small businesses have long been a blind spot for the UK government - until very recently - and the impact has gone way beyond poor access to funding. It includes slow payment of invoices, the absence of customer protection when dealing with big business and lack of alternatives to litigation to resolve disputes.

What's changed?

A combination of financial crisis, better technology and access to data has exposed more of the problems surrounding SMEs - and made it possible to start doing something about them. And it's clear that legislators are prepared to act when they are faced with such data. The EU Late Payments Directive aimed to eliminate slow payments. The UK has created the British Business Bank to improve access to finance, as well as a mandatory process for banks to refer declined loan applications to alternative finance providers and improved access to SME credit data to make it easier for new lenders to independently assess SME creditworthiness. The crowdfunding boom has also been encouraged by the UK government, and has produced many new forms of non-bank finance for SMEs, including equity for start-ups, debentures for long term project funding, more flexible invoice trading and peer-to-peer loans for commercial property and working capital.  Last week, the FCA launched a discussion paper on broadening its consumer protection regime to include more SMEs.

Yet most of these initiatives are still to fully take effect; and listening to Tuesday's session on the latest issues made it clear there is a long way to go before the financial system allocates the right resources to the invisible majority of the private sector.

A key thread running through most areas of complaint seems to be a lack of transparency - ready access to data. This seems to be both a root cause of a lot of problems as well as the reason so many proposed solutions end up making little impact. But the huge numbers and diversity of SMEs presents the kind of complexity that only data scientists can help us resolve if we are to address the whole iceberg, rather than just the tip. That's surely one job for the newly launched Alan Turing Data Institute, for example, although readers will know of my fear that it seems more aligned with institutions than the poor old sole trader, let alone the consumer. So maybe SMEs need their own 'Chief Data Scientist' to champion their plight?

The latest specific concerns discussed were as follows:

• despite much regulatory activity, few bank reforms have actually taken effect - and many are being watered down - with the result that the banking picture is worse, if anything, than it was in 2008. Recent fines and scandals reveal little change in culture from that described in the report of the Parliamentary Commission on Banking Standards and most recently in the damning report into the failure of HBOS. In addition, banking is more concentrated (despite a few new entrants); less diverse in terms of ownership structure, competition, regional coverage and financial model; and still only about £200bn or 3% of bank assets are focused on SMEs and GDP producing activities. The trouble is we've known this for some time, but aside from the BBB's activity on access to funding, we still seem unclear on what can be done for SMEs at a regional or local level;

• the recent findings and remedies proposed by the Competition and Markets Authority into business current accounts are widely considered to be weak and unlikely to be effective - try searching the word "data" in the report to see how often there was too little available. The report still feels like the tip of an iceberg rather than a complete picture of the market and its problems;

• austerity imperatives seem to be the main driver for off-loading RBS into private shareholder ownership - the bank pleading to be left to its own devices (not what it suddenly announced to the Chancellor in 2008!) - and trying to kill-off any further discussion of using its systems as a platform for a network of smaller regionally-focused banks (as in Germany);

• bank lobbying has become more powerful - and will become even more so with the merger of their various mouthpieces - we need much more transparency on banks' access to government and the revolving door between the City and Whitehall/Westminster - we should have learned long ago that the interests of large banking groups are not aligned with SMEs (or consumers);

• SMEs lack an effective means of resolving disputes with banks, as the Financial Ombudsman Service has limited jurisdiction; banks refuse to release internal reports related to credit decisions and calling in loans; while the FCA is said to be hiding behind its confidentiality obligations; and banks have too much legal fire power for SMEs to take them on in court - hence moves to take matters into their own hands. The FCA has clearly woken up to this, but it's recent discussion paper shows there's a huge gap to close.

• the financial infrastructure for SMEs appears not to be geographically diverse - it doesn't yet mirror the Chancellor's "Northern Powerhouse" policy, for instance - despite calls for bank transparency on the geographical accessibility, a US-style "Community Reinvestment Act" and clear reporting on lending to SMEs by individual banks (rather than the Bank of England's summary reporting). There's a sense that we should see some kind of financial devolution to match political devolution, albeit one that still enables local finance to leverage national resources and economies of scale. Technology should help here, as we are tending to use the internet and mobile apps quite locally, despite their global potential;

• Some believe that SMEs need to take more responsibility for actively managing their finances, including seeking out alternatives and switching; while others believe that financial welfare should be like a utility - somehow pumped to everyone like water or gas, I assume - indeed regional alternative energy companies were touted as possible platforms for expanding access to regional financial services. My own view is that humans are unlikely to become more financially capable, so financial and other services supplied in complex scenarios need to be made simpler and more accessible - we should be relying less on advertising and more on hard data and personalised apps in such instances.

• Meanwhile, SME are said to lack a genuine, high profile champion whose role it is to ensure that the financial system generally is properly supportive of them. This may seem a little unfair to the Business Bank, various trade bodies and government departments, but it's also hard for any one of these bodies to oversee the whole fragmented picture. As I suggested above, however, I wonder whether a 'data champion' could be helpful to the various stakeholder in identifying and resolving problems, rather than a single being expected to act as a small business finance tsar. 

 In other words, we should follow the data, not the money...

Who Is Late In Paying Our #SMEs £41bn?!

In an attempt to eradicate late payments to small businesses of approximately £41bn, the government has proposed that, from April 2016, large listed companies will have to report twice-yearly on: 

• their standard payment terms;
• average time taken to pay; 
• the proportion of invoices paid within 30 days, 31-60 days and beyond agreed terms; 
• amount of late payment interest owed/paid; 
• incentives charged to join/remain on preferred supplier lists; 
• dispute resolution processes; 
• the availability of e-invoicing, supply chain finance and preferred supplier lists; and 
• membership of a Payment Code.

A copy of the simple but effective sample report is attached to the government's announcement.

Not only should this data result in the naming and shaming of late payers, but it should also further define and foster growth in the market for discounting these invoices, to help fund the growth of the affected SMEs.

Referral Process For UK Small Businesses The Banks Won't Fund

As mentioned briefly before, UK banks have been so hopeless in referring businesses they can't finance to alternative lenders that the government has decided to create a mandatory referral process.

Currently, the largest four banks account for over 80% of UK SMEs’ main banking relationships. Most SMEs only approach their main bank for finance, with around 40% giving up their search if they are unsuccessful.  A proportion of those rejected are viable businesses who simply don't satisfy the risk appetite of the largest banks. The result is that other providers of finance aren't able to help because they are not seeing the need among SMEs, and the SMEs are unaware of the alternatives to their bank.

So the government will use the Small Business, Enterprise and Employment Bill to require the larger UK business lenders to refer any SME whose finance application is rejected (with the SME's consent) to certain designated private sector platforms. Those platforms will then connect willing SMEs with participating alternative providers of finance (ranging from finance companies, to invoice discounting providers to peer-to-peer lending platforms to challenger banks). 

The platforms will need to comply with minimum standards to help ensure that SMEs are in control and properly protected throughout the process. All types of credit products offered by large banks to SMEs will be covered by the referral requirement, although there will be a low threshold below which it would be too costly to refer the funding application. Some businesses may also be excluded for various reasons that would include where the initial funding application was rejected for suspected money laundering. The proposals are also designed to complement and work in conjunction with the government policy to improve access to SME credit data, a process that is happening separately, but in parallel.

In summary, the SME funding referral programme should work as follows:

• SMEs must consent to be referred, and will have their details anonymised. Alternative lenders will only be able to see key information that would allow them to make an initial assessment of whether an SME may be a potential lending opportunity.

• If a lender wishes to explore a lending opportunity with a business, it would need to make contact through the platform and request consent to see that business’s contact details and begin a direct dialogue. Where a lender wishes to make a more detailed credit assessment, it will be able to obtain credit data from the business’s main bank via designated Credit Reference Agencies.

• Platforms will be able to exercise discretion over whether they grant financial and business advisers and other intermediaries access, but the platform must clearly notify SMEs when it is an intermediary that wishes to contact them, and not a lender.

The minimum standards for the referral platforms will be stipulated by the Treasury on advice of the British Business Bank. Standards will include: 

• data protection – to avoid excessive or misleading approaches or credit checks without consent;

• fair access to all SME lenders that agree to terms and conditions regarding appropriate treatment of SMEs contacted through the platform; and

• accountability for alternative lenders who fail to comply with the terms and conditions they sign up to when joining the platform. 

The Treasury will be able to de-designate platforms that fail to adhere to the standards. The FCA will oversee the obligation on banks to share information with platforms, and the platforms’ requirement to give fair access to lenders. Sole traders and micro businesses will be able to complain about platforms to the Financial Ombudsman Service when dealing with designated platforms. 

Further detailed regulation, including the designation criteria that potential platforms must meet, will be set out in secondary legislation following the passage of the Bill.

UK Government: Gamble All You Like, But Don't Invest

You've got to wonder about priorities at the Department of Culture Media and Sport. They allowed UK bookmakers to harvest £46 billion through betting machines last year - not to mention the bingo and lotteries freely advertised on TV - while computer games companies complained they can't offer shares to fans who crowdfund games development. 

Consider this from today's Telegraph:

• Britons gambled £46 billion on betting terminals last year, an increase of almost 50% in four years.

• Gamblers lose up to £100 every 20 seconds on the fixed odds machines.

• 588,000 under-18s were stopped when they tried to enter a betting shop last year, six times as many as 2009, and 27,000 people were challenged once they had placed a bet.

• Bookmakers made profits of £1.55 billion from the terminals between April 2012 and March 2013.

Meanwhile, even though the FCA has said that ordinary folk will be able to invest to fund the development of a computer game, for example, they must first certify that they will not invest more than 10% of their 'net investible portfolio' and either seek financial advice or satisfy an "appropriateness test". That's because they say investing is risky for consumers... 

Compared to what?!

Image from RoehamptonStudent.com. 

Do TV Advertising Rules Limit Economic Growth?

There has been plenty of research into the alleged effect of TV sex and violence on human behaviour, but how does TV adversely impact our economic behaviour? 

This issue was recently highlighted by the FCA's proposed new rules on crowdfunding. Left in isolation, the current restrictions on financial promotions suggest the State would prefer us to play bingo or buy lottery tickets than invest the same small amounts in funding the growth of each other's businesses. 

The FCA is right to point out the risks of investing in start-ups, but it should compare those risks to the risks consumers face when putting their money into other products that are more freely advertised.

We rely on small businesses for over half of all new jobs and a third of private sector turnover. Yet, those small businesses struggle for funding while over half of the UK's adults engage in regulated gambling that is designed to cost consumers far more than they 'win'.

It may be true that over half of business start-ups fail within 3 years, but they still employ at least one person in the meantime. And maybe more of those businesses would survive if we lent them some of our bingo money, or bought their shares with at least some of the money we chuck away on the ponies. Better that the money goes in wages, and the goods and services that small businesses typically buy, rather than simply to line the pockets of the bookies - and you have the chance of getting a decent return on small business loans, or if you happen to invest in the businesses that succeed in the longer term. 

No doubt someone will raise the moral panic about 'good causes' being starved of lottery money if we don't allow the promotion of that form of gambling. But I'm not talking about any ban on advertising lottery or bingo etc., just a relaxation of rules on the promotion of productive financial instruments (though it would be more efficient to simply donate a third of your lottery money directly to good causes on a crowdfunding platform than to wait for it to filter through the books of a lottery operator).

Ads for apparently 'safe' bank savings products are not helpful here, since savings rates are low and banks are not focused on lending to small businesses. We have over £200bn sitting passively in low interest bank deposits, yet banks' savings rates are below the rate of inflation, and banks only lend £1 in very £10 to SMEs. The Financial Services Compensation Scheme might protect your deposit if the bank goes under, but that's another cost that consumers end up paying for, and it won't protect the value of those deposits against inflation. Stocks and shares ISAs and pensions are similarly 'passive' investments in financial assets, rather than productive ones.

The highly restrictive approach to financial promotions has neither prevented financial scandals nor created a sound financial system - two of many reasons why people have resorted to lending directly to each other, or investing directly in each others' projects and businesses. So why not allow these new alternatives to be promoted more openly - at least to the same extent as riskier, non-productive activities like playing bingo or buying lottery tickets?

We need to move away from rules that dictate what we can do with our money, to rules that enable a fully informed choice from amongst all the options. 

At any rate, the State should certainly not create a situation where the money-related messages which the average TV viewer receives do not include investing directly in the productive economy.

Image from RoehamptonStudent.com.

Matched Funding For UK SME Lending Platforms

At a ‘FinTech’ Cabinet Office workshop on Monday, we were informed/reminded that the "Business Bank" created by the Department of Business Innovation and Skills has at least £300m to invest in any platform or business that will provide debt funding to SMEs.

Apparently few applications have been received so far.

The process starts with just a 3-pager to establish whether its worth proceeding to a more detailed pitch. If the process is to proceed, it should be no more intensive than a typical VC/angel investment process (see section 2 of the doc).

Related investment funding programmes include:

• £50m to expand the Business Angel Co-Investment Fund to a £100m fund; 

• £25m to extend the Enterprise Capital Fund programme to include a VC Catalyst Fund, which will invest in venture capital funds that specialise in early stage venture capital and are near to close, enabling them to commenc e investment in small and medium sized enterprises.

• Plans to expand the Enterprise Finance Guarantee (“EFG”), aimed at using guarantees to help bridge the “affordability gap” by providing a guarantee to lenders of up to 25% of the overall cost of repaying a loan; and separately, extending EFG to support businesses lacking track record, who are seeking loans of under £25k.

Several other programmes (like the Business Finance Partnership) are also being consolidated under the umbrella of the “Business Bank”, boosting the overall amount available to about £1.5bn. New senior management with private equity experience have been appointed in order to speed the programme along.

Here's an explanation of the strategy and timing for the Business Bank to become fully operational. 

Either Gillian Tett's On Fire...

Ominous bursts of smoke have been rising from Gillian Tett recently. 

On September 12, the lady who gave us Fool's Gold pointed out that six key aspects of the financial system in 2008 are far worse now. 

The banks are bigger. Shadow banking is bigger. Investor faith hinges on central banking 'wisdom' and liquidity, while the top 5% of bankers are soaking up 40% of that support in bonuses. No one has been jailed for their role in the sub-prime fiasco. And the US government agencies now account for 90% of the mortgage market...

Today's smoke is rising over the Federal Reserve's decision to keep buying smack bonds at the rate of $85bn a month. It appears to have concluded that the West simply can't handle the withdrawal symptoms. Meanwhile, the UK regulatory elite has finally started to ring the bell over the fact that only 10-15% of the money our banks create actually goes to productive firms, while the rest is stoking financial asset bubbles... And, oh look, the real estate agency, Foxtons, has soared on its return to the stock market.

Either Gillian Tett's on fire, or something else sure as Hell is.

Image from JetSetRnv8r.

More Sunlight Needed On Perverse Tax Incentives

Our continuing economic woes seem to reveal a UK Treasury that has lost touch with the fundamental tax and regulatory problems in the UK economy and is unwilling to engage openly and proactively on how to resolve them.

Not only did the Treasury lose any grip it had on the financial system when it mattered most during the last decade, but the rocky passage of the Financial Services Bill and the need to create a joint parliamentary Commission on Banking Standards also reveal that any such grip remains elusive. This, coupled with the UK's bizarrely complicated system of stealth taxes and incentives, demonstrates the urgent need for more transparency and openness in how the Treasury is going about the task of addressing our economic issues.

The latest example comes with the news that the government might revisit the bizarre decision to delay the revaluation of business rates, which are still based on the higher rental values of 2008. The task of setting business rates every five years lies buried in the Valuation Office Agency, an 'executive agency' of HM Revenue and Customs within HM Treasury. So it's nicely insulated from anyone who might complain about the impact of the rather occasional exercise of its responsibility. Instead, businesses have complained to Vince Cable, over at Business Innovation and Skills, and he's bravely (insanely?) promised to do what he can. However, the hermetically sealed nature of civil service silos means the Valuation Office Agency can safely ignore the issue.

Anyone else afflicted by perverse public sector tax issues faces the same problem. 

UK-based retailers are wasting their time by complaining they are disadvantaged compared to international businesses that are better able to minimise their tax liabilities. Not only is this a welcome distraction from the bigger issue of how the public sector wastes money, (which the Cabinet Office has been left to address), but the Treasury hides behind BIS, no doubt laughing-off the complaints as an example of businesses not understanding how the arcane world of taxation really works. The trouble is the Treasury doesn't understand how that world really works either. Nobody does. That was the whole point of Gordon Brown's stealth approach to taxation. But this should be no excuse for the department that's supposed to be in charge. The Treasury needs to take responsibility for understanding and explaining how it all works, including the unintended consequences.

Similarly, the Treasury needs to take responsibility for the fact that the UK's small businesses face a funding gap of £26bn - £52bn over the next 5 years. Here, again, BIS has had to act as a human shield, even threatening to launch its own 'bank'. Yet HMT has allowed four major banks to get away with controlling 90% of the small business finance market while only dedicating 10% of the credit they issue to productive firms. This, despite the fact that small businesses represent 99.9% of all UK enterprises, are responsible for 60% of private sector employment and are a critical factor in the UK's economic growth which has slipped into reverse yet again. Meanwhile, the Treasury continues to resist allowing a broader range of assets to qualify for the ISA scheme, which currently incentivises workers to concentrate their savings into low yield deposits with the same banks that are turning away from small business lending just when it's needed most.

More sunlight please!

Does Ana Botín Have Any Clothes?

In a fawning interview in Monday's Telegraph, Ana Botin, CEO of Santander UK and billionaire's daughter, is lauded for having run a start-up and quoted as saying she will be “accelerating” the expansion of the bank’s small business lending. But does this really justify such fawning tributes, or does the emperor have no clothes?

According to BIS, the stock of lending to UK non-financial corporate businesses was £506bn in December 2011.  The department estimates a potential credit gap over the next five years of between £84bn and £191bn for the business sector as a whole, of which between £26bn and £59bn is estimated to relate to smaller businesses. BIS says bank lending may grow, but the ability of bank lending to increase may be constrained by the ability to raise capital and meet higher funding costs. The big four banks control over 90% of the business finance market, leaving the likes of Santander with very little indeed.

At any rate, the important factor here is not the amount that Santander actually dedicates to small business lending. It's the proportion that its small business lending activity represents of its overeall credit creation. Richard Werner, the economist, estimates that UK banks generally dedicate only 10% of their credit creation activity to productive firms. He says that it's critical to grow that proportion because credit aimed at productive firms is the only signficant driver of economic growth as measured by GDP - which is flat. Credit that goes to consumption only fuels inflation, and credit for the purchase of non-GDP assets simply drives up the prices of those assets. In Germany, by contrast, 70% of banks (about 2000 of them) only lend locally and supply about 40% of SME finance.

Against this backdrop, Santander's claims don't merit much attention at all. To achieve it's proposed 'acceleration' of lending to small businesses, Santander UK suggests it will use some of the £2bn capital allocated to its failed acquisition of 316 RBS branches and some of the £1bn it has drawn down as part of the public subsidy given to banks in the form of the Funding for Lending Scheme. The bank announced £500m additional asset financing last Thursday. Yet its gross business lending only stands at £10bn, even having grown 20% year on year since 2009. “This is net new lending,” claims, the CEO, but then says this represents switching from other banks. So it may not be net new lending to SMEs generally, i.e. funding that is going to SMEs who can't otherwise get it.

So, while she talks a good game, Ana Botin and the bank she runs have no clothes. 

Image from ElaineByrne. 

Google, Amazon and The Shape of SME Finance

In November 2007 it seemed clear that facilitators like Google and Amazon would capitalise on their alignment with their customers' day-to-day activities to disrupt banking. Both of these giants already have e-money licences in Europe (I helped Amazon apply for its own), and the latest foray is into trade finance. Google will offer a line of credit for AdWords advertising spend, while it appears Amazon will lend to selected small businesses against their projected sales over the Christmas season. 

While these services may be offered initially in the US, where there are lots of small business funding options, bear in mind that only four UK banks control 90% of the small business finance market and are lending less and less to them. And while some UK banks enable some merchants to obtain cash advances against their card receivables, it's not exactly a core activity.

The competition alone must prove welcome, yet the critical feature of both the Google and Amazon services is that they are seamlessly intertwined with customer behaviour. Both businesses could have decided to launch free-standing, me-too banking services (like the UK supermarkets), but they have not done so. No doubt they also intend to attract new customers with the latest services, but only by showing that they support what small businesses want to do - namely, sell their own goods and services across a staggering array of markets and demographies.

And by patiently facilitating their customer's activities, neither Google nor Amazon needs to incentivise staff to sell services to people who don't need them, as banks have done.

Careful What You Incentivise

Two things seem to be choking the flow of money to people and small businesses in the UK: broken regulation and perverse incentives. Yet there's a tendency to focus more on regulation, and to only see the obvious incentives - like bankers bonuses. Some innovative self-regulation in retail finance has been welcomed by the UK government, and banking reform creeps ahead. But all this could prove futile if problems with incentives are not also addressed. To fix those, we need to look below the surface at the more fundamental incentives at play in the financial system. In particular, we need to understand the extent to which the likes of ISA schemes and pension investment rules are limiting competition and innovation in financial services and inhibiting economic growth. I've summarised some recent debate on this below, and added some comments on the government's latest defence of the ISA scheme. I'd welcome your thoughts.

Some of the perverse incentives have been outlined to government by tax colleagues previously (in Annex 3 to this document). In essence, the contention has been that certain tax relief selectively favours banks and the suppliers of regulated investments to the detriment of innovation and competition. In particular, the tax free ISA system funnels ordinary people's savings into UK bank deposits on a vast scale, which the banks then fail to lend. This effectively discourages and inhibits those same people from diversifying, one alternative being to extend finance directly to other creditworthy people and businesses through peer-to-peer platforms. As a result, it's been suggested that the ISA system should be extended to cover such direct finance. Indeed, in his response to the Red Tape Challenge, Mark Littlewood, Director-General of the Institute of Economic Affairs and a 'Sector Champion' said:

"...it is surely worth noting that the present format and definition of the ISA wrap may have raised “barrier to entry” problems for new financial products and it may be beneficial to review these to stimulate innovation in the sector."

But the impact on innovation is merely the tip of the iceberg. It's the impact on the wider economy that must be understood.

There is overwhelming evidence that the UK's small businesses are cash-starved. They represent 99.9% of all UK enterprises and are responsible for 60% of private sector employment. Their output is critical to the UK's economic growth, which has stalled. Yet they face a funding gap of £26bn - £52bn over the next 5 years. Critically, the four banks which control 90% of the small business finance market are lending less and less to them. This is a red flag. You might think from their enormous market share that these banks would consider small business lending to be very important and a retreat from that market unwise. But, as the economist Richard Werner has pointed out, the reality is that only about 10% of the overall credit issued by our banks goes to productive firms. The other 90% goes to fund deals involving financial assets which don't count towards economic growth figures. So for these banks small business lending is actually a sideshow. They clearly make their money elsewhere.

Yet the ISA scheme had lured savings and investments of £391bn from UK adults by the April 2012, half of which is in cash deposits in these same banks. And they pay nothing for it - a paltry 0.41% in interest after 'teaser rates' expire, according to a 'super complaint' by Consumer Focus in 2010. 

In other words, the government appears to be incentivising workers to plough their savings into banks which virtually ignore the sector on which most of those same workers depend for their income. 

Contrast this with the position in Germany, where 70% of the banking sector comprises hundreds of small, locally-controlled banks who provide 40% of all loans to SMEs.  In an ironic twist, the UK government now sees peer-to-peer platforms as a similar conduit for a new German-style government-directed lending programme. But it appears never to have openly considered that the limited scope of the ISA scheme is part of the problem. 

In March, the goverment defended the narrow scope of the ISA scheme for the reasons extracted here. In September, the government gave a different response (see p. 13 here). In the hope of sparking wider debate on the issues, I've set out the current defence of the status quo below (my additions/comments in square brackets). I welcome any comments.

"HM Treasury believes that there is not a strong enough case for [making bad debt relief available to P2P lenders], as creating an exception would add complexity to the tax system and is difficult to justify when other [unspecified] forms of investment do not qualify for bad debt relief. Moreover, the current tax treatment of P2P investors is not necessarily a barrier to further expansion, as witnessed by the impressive growth in the industry in recent years.

...HM Treasury does not believe that P2P loans are suitable for inclusion in ISAs. The risk profile of P2P lending is too high [compared to what? cash ISAs? stocks and shares ISAs?], and it is unlikely that the platform can satisfy some of the [unspecified] features essential to the operation of ISAs.

Consumers tend to view ISAs as a relatively safe and simple investment vehicle [this fails to distinguish between cash ISAs and stocks/shares ISAs. And are they safe?]. ISA investments are thought of as relatively low-risk, and consumers should be able to get access to their funds whenever they wish. This is less likely to be the case with P2P lending than with existing ISA Qualifying Investments [this could be cured by permitting secondary markets in P2P loans]. 

Similarly, existing Regulations require ISAs to be operated through an ISA Manager [regulations could include P2P platforms], who invests through persons or firms who are authorised by the FSA, and thus have access to the FSCS [this does not mean you can't lose the principal in your stocks/shares ISAs, or stop banks paying 0.41% interest on cash ISAs]. As far as we are aware, current P2P lending platforms are not conducive to the ISA Manager role, are not regulated by the FSA, and do not offer Financial Services Compensation Scheme (FSCS) protection [any or all of which could be changed by regulation].

Finally, in order to be included in an ISA, P2P loans will require to be listed as a Qualifying Investment. Qualifying Investments are identified generically. It would be extremely difficult to restrict a generic description such as “loan” only to loans made via P2P lending platforms [but none of the qualifying investments are so generic, being limited by reference to 'banks', 'building societies', 'recognised stock exchanges' etc., so why not by reference to 'P2P platforms'?]. Exclusion from the ISA wrapper does not make this type of lending exceptional; rather, it puts it on the same footing as investment in stocks and shares issued by unlisted companies [how are these activities equivalent?]."

Credit Drives Growth (Not Interest Rates)

Thanks to IPPR and The Finance Innovation Lab for an invigorating seminar on bank reform this morning. I've noted some of the highlights below, but in summary: Chris Hewett gave a great overview of the range of proposals; Richard Werner debunked the myth that interest rates drive economic growth and explained why the Bank of England must guide bank credit away from speculation and into productive firms; and Baroness Susan Kramer explained the work being done in Parliament.

Chris's 'policy map' in particular is worth studying in particular (zoom out of his presentation to find it). It reveals the ideas that are merely 'a glint in the eye', those that are attracting support and those that are being fought over by stakeholders in a way that is likely to produce change in the near term. 

Richard showed that interest rates do not drive economic growth. Rather, they lag changes in economic growth by as much as a year. So it's a myth that lowering interest rates will increase economic growth, or that raising them will slow growth. Instead, the evidence proves that those in charge of monetary policy merely react to a slowing economy by lowering interest rates, and react to a growing economy by raising them. In other words, economic growth drives the setting of interest rates not the other way around (so GDP growth and interest rates are positively correlated, not negatively correlated as many people suggest).

So the current low Bank of England base rate merely reflects the current economic malaise, and changing it one way or the other won't drive economic growth (GDP). Mortgage rates are already much higher, anyway, and it may be doubted whether banks would pass on any rise to savers.

In fact, Richard observed that the only driver of growth in GDP is bank credit that is used for productive investment. Credit used for consumption merely raises inflation, and credit used to buy financial assets (which don't count towards GDP) merely drives up non-GDP asset prices.

Richard explained the importance of recognising that we derive 97% of our money supply from banks extending credit. They 'create' money every time they make a loan. But here's the killer: only about 10% of credit created by UK banks actually goes to productive firms. The rest of the credit created is used by investment banks, hedge funds, private equity and so on to speculate on non-GDP assets.

In addition, the risk-weightings under bank capital rules discourage banks from lending to small firms (as I've also mentioned before), effectively encouraging lending to fund speculative property deals - even though the overall risk profile of loans to small businesses is lower than lending for speculative purposes, and in spite of the fact that small firms represent 99.9% of all enterprises and are responsible for 60% of private sector employment).

Richard explained that Project Merlin and the more recent efforts by the Treasury to shame banks into lending to productive firms all fail because the banks can afford to ignore the Treasury. But central banks have been successful in guiding credit to the right sectors previously, because the banks rely on the faith of the central bank to stay in business. The IMF has previously discouraged the use of this so-called "window guidance" because it has been abused in certain countries (e.g. to aid speculators or political cronies). But a transparent programme could work. A longer term alternative is to create new banks that never lend for speculative purposes - in Germany, for example, 70% of banks (about 2000 of them) only lend locally. Spain had a similar system, but then required its local 'cajas' to lend nationally, with devastating effects.

Finally, Richard said that the banks' could lend more to productive firms and still meet their capital requirements. But they need to lower the bar to obtaining credit (which German banks have commonly done during a downturn) and to incentivise staff for making productive loans. Currently, it's easier for bankers to earn bonuses for supporting speculative activity.

Baroness Kramer explained that Parliament is focused on four main aspects of the financial crisis: the market failure to provide bank credit to productive small firms; capital/cost barriers to launching new banks; encouraging peer-to-peer finance platforms; and ensuring that the Financial Services Bill and the up-coming Banking Bill are fit for purpose. 

Susan said that the Joint Parliamentary Committee on Banking Standards should have the membership and resources to get to the root cause of market failures and make improvements to fix them. While the evidence of market failure is clear, more evidence of the underlying problems and causes is very much welcome (even after the deadlines for submissions have expired). There is a belief amongst some in the House of Lords that the same regulator should be responsible for addressing market failure, as well as enterprise risk and market abuse, because they are all linked. The FDIC in the US provides an example of how this can work.

Proposals to reduce capital/costs that prevent the launch of new banks include reduced capital requirements for local banks that won't be systemic; and the regulation of a common banking platform that takes care of most operational risks, so that small banks could simply 'plug-in'. Susan observed that credit unions only cover about 2% of the borrowing population, so are not a replacement for new, local institutions.

Baroness Kramer has led the way in proposing amendments to the Financial Services Bill to proportionately regulate peer-to-peer finance. In the course of discussing those proposals, it appears that the Treasury has conceded that there is already a provision in the Financial Services Bill that could enable such regulation. However that still leaves the job of agreeing the detailed secondary legislation (and any further enabling legislation) required, so the industry should keep up the pressure in that regard.

Finally, Susan praised the white paper that underpins the Banking Bill as containing 'pretty good' language on enabling new entrants to the banking industry. However, it is going to be important for everyone to be vigilant in ensuring the spirit of this is captured in the provisons of the Bill.

Government Support For P2P

The authorities tend to view people sharing content as 'piracy', but fortunately when it comes to money the UK government thinks sharing is a great idea.

I've covered the Breedon Taskforce report, and the Government's response over on The Fine Print. But the most significant points for ordinary people with surplus cash and those who need it are:

• the government's support for self-regulation of peer-to-peer finance; and

• the ISA scheme remains closed to new assets, despite recommendations that it be extended.

Don't Just Move Your Money: Spread It, Recycle It.

Great to see the MoveYourMoney campaign up and running - certainly a step up from the calls for futile mass withdrawals in 2010. But there are two significant gaps in the message.

Firstly: why should we move our money?

We don't need to 'save'. That's not really an activitiy in itself. And it's only one side of a much bigger story. Where do our deposits go?

As a society, our financial challenge is to get surplus cash from those who have it to creditworthy people and businesses who need it. Quickly and cheaply. At the rate that's right for both parties.

Our financial institutions don't enable this right now. They pay very little to interest to savers. They keep too much of the interest that borrowers pay. They use this 'margin' to cover losses from their own poor investments. 

So we've had to invent direct finance services that cut the cost of connecting savers and borrowers - meaning higher returns on savings and cheaper borrowing costs. As each borrower repays, you can re-lend your money to others. Think of it as financial recycling. The banks still play a role - the operators of these new services recycle the money through segregated business bank accounts - but they don't get to use your money the same way as if you opened your own personal savings account.

But this brings us to the second gap in the MoveYourMoney campaign. We shouldn't move our money to just one place. We need to put our eggs in lots of baskets -  we need to diversify more. There are many other baskets for your eggs than those listed.

Yet we are incentivised by government not to diversify. Most of us only get basic tax breaks (e.g. ISAs) for putting our small amounts of savings in the bank or building society (or in regulated stocks and shares).  This not only discourages us from using more efficient services, but also protects banks and building societies (and managed investment funds) from competition. Worse, it encourages us to put all our eggs in a few baskets, so our holdings of surplus funds are not diversified. We're told this is 'safe' to do because at least some of our money is protected by the Financial Services Compensation Scheme. But such insurance does not ultimately make these baskets 'safe' for all of us as a society. It makes these baskets expensive - because as consumers we all pay for the compensation scheme in the end. And we pay again as taxpayers when the highly concentrated risks in the financial system bring it grinding to a halt.

MoveYourMoney may not yet explain the need to get your money quickly and cheaply to creditworthy people and businesses who need funding. Nor adequately explain the need to diversify. But the government is now aware that the regulations and incentives are wrong. And organisations like MoveYourMoney should be helping us to keep the pressure on government so that these problems are actually addressed.

When Will Control Truly Shift To The Consumer?

For those engaged in the process of empowering consumers, 2012 is already a fascinating year. So it was timely that a bunch of us met at Ctrl Shift's "Explorer's Club" to try to map the timeline for when 'customer relationship management' truly inverts and firms finally acknowledge their customers control them. 

The output of the session is being converted into an 'infographic' that will be available as a reference soon. In the meantime, here's an excellent drawing that Joel Cooper produced during the session to reflect the various themes:

Submission on New Model for Retail Finance

Over on The Fine Print, I've set out both the initial summary and my full submission to the Red Tape Challenge and the BIS Taskforce on Non-bank Finance. I'm very grateful to the colleagues who contributed, as mentioned in the longer document.

Some might say that the alternative finance market is small beer at this point, and it's not worth accommodating them in the regulatory framework. But it's unrealistic to expect alternative business models to thrive amidst the dominance of the banks and while the entire financial system is hard-wired to suit them and other traditional investment vehicles (see the series of articles by Vince Heaney, David Potter and Adriana Nilsson in February's Financial World).

Others might also say that we should wait until the 'winning' business models emerge before figuring out what regulation may need to change. Yet picking winning business ideas is impossible, as Peter Urwin explains in "Self-employment, Small Firms and Enterprise". He has found that, while "entrepreneurship is crucial for economic growth... we have no idea where it will come from - not even in the most general terms."

As a result, the best that we - and government - can do is to ensure "a climate in which enterpreneurship can thrive".

Red Tape in Retail Financial Services

I'm off to Number 10 today, to talk about red tape that's constraining disruptive business models in financial services. In the interests of transparency, I've summarised my thoughts for both the legal community here, as well as below. I'll be submitting a more detailed paper in the coming weeks, both to the Red Tape Challenge and the BIS Taskforce on alternative business finance. I'm interested in any comments you may have.

In its invitation to submit evidence of ‘red tape’ that is inhibiting the developmentof ‘disruptive business models’, the Cabinet Office notes the example of Zopa, “a company that provides a platform for members of the public to lend to each other, who found that financial regulations simply didn’t know how to deal with a business that didn’t conform to an outdated idea of what a lender is…” 

Financial regulation similarly fails to deal with a range of non-bank finance platforms that share some of the key characteristics of Zopa’s person-to-person lending platform. Accordingly, financial regulation is failing to enable the cost efficient flow of surplus funds from ordinary people savers and investors to creditworthy people and businesses who need finance. In particular, the current framework: 

1. generates confusion amongst ordinary people as to the basis on which they may lawfully participate on alternative finance platforms (even though some are licensed by the Office of Fair Trading); 
2. does not make alternative finance products eligible for the usual mechanisms through which ordinary people save and invest, exposing lenders to higher ‘effective tax rates’; 
3. discourages ordinary savers and investors from adequately diversifying their investments; 
4. incentivises ordinary savers and investors to concentrate their money in bank cash deposits, and regulated stocks and shares; 
5. inhibits ordinary savers’ and investors’ from accessing fixed income returns that exceed long term savings rates; 
6. inhibits the development of peer-to-peer funding of other fixed term finance (e.g.mortgages and project/asset finance, and even short term funding of invoices); and
7. protects ‘traditional’ regulated financial services providers from competition. 

These regulatory failings could be resolved by creating a new regulated activity of operating a direct finance platform, for which the best-equipped regulatory authority would be the Financial Services Authority (as replaced by the Financial Conduct Authority). Regulation of the platform would be independent of any regulation that may apply to the type of product offered to participants on the platform (e.g. loans, trade invoices, debentures to finance renewable energy and lending for social projects). Proportionate regulation that obliges platform operators to address operational risks common to all products would also enable economies of scale and sharing of consistent best practice, and leave product providers and other competent regulators to focus solely on product-specific issues (e.g. consumer credit, charitable purposes). 

Similarly, there is no reason why products distributed via these platforms should not also be eligible for the usual mechanisms through which ordinary people save and invest, such as ISAs, pensions and enterprise investment schemes.

Banks Winning War On SMEs

The latest Bank of England "Trends in Lending" report reveals that a further contraction in funding available to SMEs, combined with unjustified hikes in the cost of finance, are causing small firms to conserve cash on deposit for 2012 - which in turn means free money for banks (my emphasis added):

"The major UK lenders stated that credit availability to SMEs remained unchanged or had eased. Most major UK lenders reported that their expectations for SME credit conditions during 2012 were less optimistic than their expectations six months ago. Under this outlook, which they attributed to current economic uncertainties, SMEs were expected to continue to have a reduced risk appetite and to be cutting back on investment and non-essential spending.

Concerns about credit availability have been reported, however, by business contacts of the Bank’s network of Agents. Contacts of the Agents reported that credit conditions continued to be tighter for SMEs compared to larger corporates. Small businesses and new business start-ups still found it difficult to gain access to credit. The Bank’s Agents also reported that some small firms were holding sizable cash balances because of concerns about the continuing availability of overdraft facilities. They reported that some small firms were reluctant to approach banks out of concern for an increase in the cost of existing borrowings, or reductions in overdraft limits, and sometimes had resorted to the use of personal loans instead."

Meanwhile, loan pricing by banks "continued to drift upwards", notwithstanding that:

"Default rates and losses given default were reported to have fallen for both small and medium-sized firms over the past six months, although some pickup in these quantities was expected in 2011 Q4 for medium-sized firms. Most major UK lenders, however, reported little evidence so far of deterioration in their existing SME credit portfolios."